Table 2.
Multilevel survival analysis of functional disability among male respondents (n=34 051)
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | |
| HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | |
| Fixed effects | |||
| Community-level variables | |||
| Community-level social capital | |||
| Civic participation | 0.956 (0.878 to 1.041) | 0.959 (0.882 to 1.044) | 0.972 (0.893 to 1.058) |
| Social cohesion | 0.904 (0.824 to 0.992)* | 0.909 (0.829 to 0.996)* | 0.910 (0.830 to 0.998)* |
| Reciprocity | 0.930 (0.837 to 1.032) | 0.933 (0.841 to 1.035) | 0.920 (0.829 to 1.021) |
| Urbanisation (ref; urban) | |||
| Suburban | 1.238 (0.977 to 1.568) | 1.230 (0.972 to 1.557) | 1.241 (0.981 to 1.571) |
| Rural | 1.278 (0.986 to 1.655) | 1.232 (0.951 to 1.596) | 1.251 (0.967 to 1.620) |
| Individual-level variables | |||
| Age (ref; 65–69 years) | |||
| 70–74 | 1.963 (1.603 to 2.403)** | 1.940 (1.584 to 2.376)** | 1.948 (1.591 to 2.387)** |
| 75–79 | 3.624 (2.989 to 4.394)** | 3.550 (2.928 to 4.305)** | 3.549 (2.924 to 4.307)** |
| 80–84 | 5.115 (4.189 to 6.246)** | 4.876 (3.990 to 5.958)** | 4.800 (3.923 to 5.873)** |
| 85 or older | 11.241 (9.126 to 13.846)** | 10.371 (8.407 to 12.795)** | 10.011 (8.099 to 12.375)** |
| Educational attainment (ref; <6) | |||
| 6–9 | 0.717 (0.549 to 0.938)* | 0.738 (0.564 to 0.965)* | 0.738 (0.564 to 0.966)* |
| 10–12 | 0.682 (0.513 to 0.906)** | 0.720 (0.542 to 0.957)* | 0.727 (0.547 to 0.967)* |
| ≥13 | 0.745 (0.554 to 1.000) | 0.781 (0.581 to 1.050) | 0.793 (0.590 to 1.067) |
| Equivalised income (ref; low) | |||
| Middle | 1.234 (1.043 to 1.459)* | 1.061 (0.903 to 1.247) | 1.067 (0.908 to 1.254) |
| High | 0.961 (0.523 to 1.769) | 1.015 (0.673 to 1.530) | 1.007 (0.668 to 1.519) |
| Marital status (ref; married) | |||
| Separated/divorced | 1.028 (0.875 to 1.208) | 1.218 (1.029 to 1.441)* | 1.241 (1.048 to 1.470)* |
| Never married | 0.962 (0.638 to 1.449) | 0.907 (0.493 to 1.667) | 0.929 (0.504 to 1.713) |
| Living arrangements (ref; living with other) | |||
| Living alone | 1.012 (0.799 to 1.282 | 1.013 (0.798 to 1.284) | 1.036 (0.815 to 1.317) |
| Body mass index, kg/m2 (ref; 18.5–24.9) | |||
| <18.5 | 1.688 (1.431 to 1.993)** | 1.651 (1.399 to 1.949)** | 1.633 (1.383 to 1.927)** |
| ≥25.0 | 0.919 (0.792 to 1.065) | 0.926 (0.798 to 1.074) | 0.932 (0.804 to 1.081) |
| Self-rated health (ref; excellent) | |||
| Good | 1.356 (1.068 to 1.722)* | 1.289 (1.014 to 1.637)* | 1.265 (0.996 to 1.608) |
| Fair | 2.831 (2.205 to 3.636)** | 2.464 (1.910 to 3.178)** | 2.387 (1.850 to 3.079)** |
| Poor | 4.396 (3.287 to 5.881)** | 3.638 (2.699 to 4.903)** | 3.515 (2.606 to 4.740)** |
| Present illness (ref; no) | |||
| Yes | 1.140 (0.978 to 1.327) | 1.143 (0.981 to 1.331) | 1.146 (0.983 to 1.334) |
| Instrumental activities of daily living (ref; without difficulty) | |||
| With difficulty | 1.798 (1.606 to 2.013)** | 1.654 (1.475 to 1.856)** | 1.635 (1.457 to 1.835)** |
| Alcohol consumption (ref; non) | |||
| Past | 1.089 (0.905 to 1.310) | 1.074 (0.893 to 1.292) | 1.055 (0.877 to 1.270) |
| Current | 0.850 (0.757 to 0.954)** | 0.866 (0.771 to 0.973)* | 0.873 (0.777 to 0.981)* |
| Smoking history (ref; non-smoking) | |||
| Non-smoking now, quit before 5 years | 1.089 (0.948 to 1.250) | 1.075 (0.936 to 1.234) | 1.071 (0.932 to 1.230) |
| Non-smoking now, quit within 4 years | 1.256 (1.021 to 1.545)* | 1.237 (1.006 to 1.522)* | 1.221 (0.993 to 1.502) |
| Smoking | 1.357 (1.153 to 1.598)** | 1.320 (1.120 to 1.554)** | 1.304 (1.107 to 1.536)** |
| Geriatric Depression Scale (ref; no depression) | |||
| Depression tendency | 1.224 (1.069 to 1.402)** | 1.214 (1.059 to 1.392)** | |
| Depression | 1.222 (1.011 to 1.477)* | 1.236 (1.017 to 1.501)* | |
| Frequency of going outside (ref; almost everyday) | |||
| One to three times a week | 1.237 (1.096 to 1.397)** | 1.225 (1.084 to 1.383)** | |
| Once to twice a month or less | 1.899 (1.611 to 2.238)** | 1.801 (1.524 to 2.128)** | |
| Social isolation (ref, non-isolation) | |||
| Moderately isolation | 1.060 (0.939 to 1.196) | ||
| Group participation in the community (ref; non) | |||
| One | 0.778 (0.645 to 0.937)** | ||
| Over two | 0.725 (0.588 to 0.894)** | ||
| Social support (ref; non) | |||
| One | 0.993 (0.625 to 1.578) | ||
| Over two | 1.287 (0.864 to 1.917) | ||
| Perception of community social cohesion (ref; non) | |||
| One | 0.852 (0.686 to 1.057) | ||
| Over two | 1.020 (0.853 to 1.220) | ||
| Random effects | |||
| Community-level variance | 0.0223 | 0.0210 | 0.0199 |
*P<0.05, **P<0.01.
Values presented are HRs and 95% CIs. Community-level social capital variables (civic participation, social cohesion and reciprocity) are 1 SD increase estimates. Variance of the intercept in the null model=0.0336.