Table 3.
Multilevel survival analysis of functional disability among female respondents (n=38 970)
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | |
| HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | |
| Fixed effects | |||
| Community-level variables | |||
| Community-level social capital | |||
| Civic participation | 0.986 (0.907 to 1.072) | 0.987 (0.908 to 1.072) | 0.999 (0.918 to 1.087) |
| Social cohesion | 0.936 (0.854 to 1.027) | 0.935 (0.853 to 1.025) | 0.930 (0.847 to 1.020) |
| Reciprocity | 1.003 (0.903 to 1.115) | 1.007 (0.906 to 1.119) | 1.002 (0.901 to 1.114) |
| Urbanisation (ref; urban) | |||
| Suburban | 0.977 (0.772 to 1.236) | 0.968 (0.765 to 1.225) | 0.978 (0.772 to 1.238) |
| Rural | 1.045 (0.809 to 1.351) | 1.013 (0.784 to 1.309) | 1.024 (0.792 to 1.324) |
| Individual-level variables | |||
| Age (ref; 65–69 years) | |||
| 70–74 | 1.911 (1.478 to 2.469)** | 1.899 (1.469 to 2.455)** | 1.896 (1.466 to 2.451)** |
| 75–79 | 4.174 (3.293 to 5.290)** | 4.111 (3.242 to 5.213)** | 4.066 (3.203 to 5.161)** |
| 80–84 | 8.084 (6.371 to 10.257)** | 7.915 (6.232 to 10.052)** | 7.733 (6.079 to 9.838)** |
| 85 or older | 14.654 (11.434 to 18.780)** | 14.137 (11.016 to 18.143)** | 13.749 (10.694 to 17.677)** |
| Educational attainment (ref; <6) | |||
| 6–9 | 0.723 (0.611 to 0.857)** | 0.729 (0.615 to 0.863)** | 0.734 (0.620 to 0.870)** |
| 10–12 | 0.679 (0.561 to 0.822)** | 0.687 (0.568 to 0.832)** | 0.701 (0.578 to 0.849)** |
| ≥13 | 0.792 (0.617 to 1.015) | 0.806 (0.629 to 1.034) | 0.826 (0.643 to 1.059) |
| Equivalised income (ref; Low) | |||
| Middle | 1.037 (0.876 to 1.229) | 1.062 (0.896 to 1.259) | 1.063 (0.897 to 1.261) |
| High | 1.440 (0.989 to 2.097) | 1.505 (1.033 to 2.193)* | 1.500 (1.029 to 2.186)* |
| Marital status (ref; married) | |||
| Separated/divorced | 1.078 (0.949 to 1.224) | 1.068 (0.940 to 1.213) | 1.064 (0.936 to 1.209) |
| Never married | 1.356 (0.983 to 1.870) | 1.330 (0.964 to 1.834) | 1.338 (0.969 to 1.848) |
| Living arrangements (ref; living with other) | |||
| Living alone | 1.055 (0.912 to 1.221) | 1.044 (0.902 to 1.209) | 1.071 (0.924 to 1.241) |
| Body mass index, kg/m2 (ref; 18.5–24.9) | |||
| <18.5 | 1.423 (1.220 to 1.661)** | 1.395 (1.195 to 1.628)** | 1.363 (1.168 to 1.592)** |
| ≥25.0 | 0.997 (0.865 to 1.149) | 0.994 (0.862 to 1.146) | 1.003 (0.870 to 1.157) |
| Self-rated health (ref; excellent) | |||
| Good | 1.404 (1.098 to 1.795)** | 1.350 (1.054 to 1.727)* | 1.333 (1.041 to 1.707)* |
| Fair | 2.354 (1.818 to 3.049)** | 2.111 (1.622 to 2.746)** | 2.078 (1.596 to 2.706)** |
| Poor | 3.439 (2.524 to 4.685)** | 2.934 (2.138 to 4.027)** | 2.856 (2.077 to 3.926)** |
| Present illness (ref; no) | |||
| Yes | 0.943 (0.811 to 1.097) | 0.946 (0.813 to 1.101) | 0.954 (0.820 to 1.111) |
| Instrumental activities of daily living (ref; without difficulty) | |||
| With difficulty | 2.449 (2.167 to 2.767)** | 2.287 (2.016 to 2.595)** | 2.171 (1.911 to 2.467) |
| Alcohol consumption (ref; non) | |||
| Past | 1.574 (1.005 to 2.467)* | 1.550 (0.988 to 2.430) | 1.624 (1.035 to 2.548)* |
| Current | 0.915 (0.751 to 1.116) | 0.936 (0.767 to 1.141) | 0.949 (0.778 to 1.157) |
| Smoking history (ref; non-smoking) | |||
| Non-smoking now, quit before 5 years | 1.490 (1.121 to 1.981)** | 1.454 (1.093 to 1.934)* | 1.455 (1.094 to 1.936)* |
| Non-smoking now, quit within 4 years | 1.289 (0.758 to 2.193) | 1.291 (0.759 to 2.197) | 1.250 (0.735 to 2.129) |
| Smoking | 1.468 (1.077 to 2.000)* | 1.430 (1.048 to 1.949)* | 1.400 (1.026 to 1.911)* |
| Geriatric Depression Scale (ref; no depression) | |||
| Depression tendency | 1.232 (1.074 to 1.414)** | 1.240 (1.080 to 1.423)** | |
| Depression | 1.346 (1.116 to 1.624)** | 1.364 (1.127 to 1.651)** | |
| Frequency of going outside (ref; almost everyday) | |||
| One to three times a week | 1.119 (0.985 to 1.272) | 1.098 (0.965 to 1.249) | |
| Once to twice a month or less | 1.323 (1.120 to 1.563)** | 1.257 (1.060 to 1.491)** | |
| Social isolation (ref, non-isolation) | |||
| Moderately isolation | 1.116 (0.977 to 1.275) | ||
| Group participation in the community (ref; non) | |||
| One | 0.678 (0.555 to 0.829)** | ||
| Over two | 0.736 (0.587 to 0.923)** | ||
| Social support (ref; non) | |||
| One | 0.727 (0.408 to 1.295) | ||
| Over two | 1.010 (0.619 to 1.647) | ||
| Perception of community social cohesion (ref; non) | |||
| One | 0.912 (0.740 to 1.123) | ||
| Over two | 1.145 (0.961 to 1.364) | ||
| Random effects | |||
| Community-level variance | 0.0202 | 0.0194 | 0.0209 |
*P<0.05, **P<0.01.
Values presented are HRs and 95% CIs. Community-level social capital variables (civic participation, social cohesion, and reciprocity) are 1 SD increase estimates. Variance of the intercept in the null model=0.0351