Table 4.
Association of clinically assessed naevus phenotype with melanoma risk in the Australian Melanoma Family Study and Leeds case–control study
| Naevi | Australia (N = 740) | Leeds (N = 1450) | P‐int§ | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Case N (%) or median (IQR) |
Control N (%) or median (IQR) |
OR (95% CI)† | Adjusted OR (95% CI)‡ |
Case N (%) or median (IQR) |
Control N (%) or median (IQR) |
OR (95% CI)† | Adjusted OR (95% CI)‡ | ||
| Naevi on the whole body ≥ 2 mm | |||||||||
| Categories | |||||||||
| 0–15 | 6 (1) | 36 (12) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 193 (20) | 258 (52) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.97¶ |
| 16–40 | 20 (5) | 56 (19) | 2.08 (0.74, 5.85) | 1.44 (0.50, 4.19) | 291 (31) | 163 (33) | 2.39 (1.82, 3.14) | 2.48 (1.88, 3.29) | |
| 41–60 | 33 (7) | 42 (14) | 5.02 (1.83, 13.76) | 4.97 (1.79, 13.80) | 148 (16) | 40 (8) | 4.91 (3.27, 7.37) | 5.29 (3.49, 8.02) | |
| 61–80 | 22 (5) | 28 (9) | 5.11 (1.75, 14.96) | 4.75 (1.60, 14.13) | 81 (9) | 21 (4) | 5.14 (3.05, 8.66) | 5.40 (3.17, 9.20) | |
| 81–100 | 21 (5) | 17 (6) | 9.06 (2.93, 27.98) | 6.83 (2.15, 21.71) | 66 (7) | 5 (1) | 17.47 (6.86, 44.47) | 16.44 (6.42, 42.08) | |
| 101–200 | 119 (27) | 70 (24) | 12.65 (4.86, 32.90) | 10.91 (4.15, 28.70) | 136 (14) | 12 (2) | 15.05 (8.03, 28.20) | 14.84 (7.87, 28.01) | |
| ≥201 | 222 (50) | 48 (16) | 35.98 (13.65, 94.82) | 31.36 (11.75, 83.67) | 36 (4) | 0 (0) | n/a | n/a | |
| Quartiles | |||||||||
| Q1 (AMFS: 0–29; Leeds: 0–7) | 19 (4) | 73 (25) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 75 (8) | 134 (27) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.12 |
| Q2 (AMFS: 30–69; Leeds: 8–15) | 56 (13) | 76 (26) | 3.29 (1.73, 6.25) | 4.15 (2.10, 8.18) | 118 (12) | 124 (25) | 1.68 (1.15, 2.46) | 1.90 (1.28, 2.82) | |
| Q3 (AMFS: 70–155; Leeds: 16–29) | 94 (21) | 73 (25) | 6.45 (3.42, 12.18) | 7.36 (3.76, 14.42) | 185 (19) | 121 (24) | 2.72 (1.88, 3.93) | 3.03 (2.07, 4.43) | |
| Q4 (AMFS: >155; Leeds: >29) | 274 (62) | 75 (25) | 20.10 (10.68, 37.83) | 22.79 (11.65, 44.57) | 573 (60) | 120 (24) | 8.37 (5.85, 11.98) | 9.33 (6.43, 13.54) | |
| Continuous variables | |||||||||
| Median (IQR) & OR per 1 naevi †† | |||||||||
| Whole‐body naevi | 201 (106, 308) | 68 (30, 157) | 1.01 (1.01, 1.01) | 1.01 (1.01, 1.01) | 40 (19, 81) | 15 (7, 29) | 1.03 (1.02, 1.03) | 1.03 (1.02, 1.03) | <.0001 |
| Head and neck naevi | 14 (6, 24) | 6 (2, 13) | 1.06 (1.04, 1.08) | 1.07 (1.05, 1.09) | 3 (1, 6) | 1 (1, 3) | 1.15 (1.11, 1.20) | 1.16 (1.11, 1.20) | 0.0010 |
| Trunk naevi | 45 (23, 74) | 18 (7, 43) | 1.02 (1.02, 1.03) | 1.02 (1.02, 1.03) | 10 (4, 24) | 5 (2, 11) | 1.04 (1.03, 1.05) | 1.04 (1.03, 1.06) | 0.0003 |
| Upper limbs naevi | 76 (36, 121) | 27 (12, 57) | 1.02 (1.01, 1.02) | 1.02 (1.01, 1.02) | 11 (4, 22) | 3 (1, 8) | 1.09 (1.07, 1.11) | 1.09 (1.07, 1.11) | <.0001 |
| Lower limbs naevi | 53 (26, 91) | 16 (5, 41) | 1.02 (1.01, 1.02) | 1.02 (1.01, 1.02) | 10 (4, 25) | 3 (1, 7) | 1.07 (1.05, 1.08) | 1.06 (1.05, 1.08) | <.0001 |
| OR per adjusted SD increase in naevi ‡‡ | |||||||||
| Whole‐body naevi | 2.62 (2.08, 3.30) | 2.60 (2.06, 3.29) | 3.09 (2.50, 3.81) | 3.07 (2.48, 3.81) | 0.20 | ||||
| Head and neck naevi | 1.84 (1.50, 2.25) | 1.99 (1.60, 2.47) | 1.60 (1.39, 1.84) | 1.62 (1.41, 1.87) | 0.16 | ||||
| Trunk naevi | 2.26 (1.82, 2.79) | 2.36 (1.89, 2.94) | 1.93 (1.63, 2.29) | 2.05 (1.71, 2.44) | 0.29 | ||||
| Upper limbs naevi | 2.50 (2.00, 3.14) | 2.58 (2.04, 3.27) | 3.18 (2.56, 3.96) | 3.20 (2.56, 3.98) | 0.06 | ||||
| Lower limbs naevi | 2.45 (1.93, 3.12) | 2.26 (1.77, 2.89) | 3.39 (2.64, 4.34) | 3.21 (2.50, 4.11) | 0.04 | ||||
| Dysplastic naevi | |||||||||
| Categories | |||||||||
| 0 | 245 (55) | 229 (77) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 689 (72) | 458 (92) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.04 |
| 1 | 48 (11) | 34 (11) | 1.41 (0.86, 2.32) | 1.34 (0.80, 2.24) | 124 (13) | 28 (6) | 2.80 (1.82, 4.31) | 2.71 (1.75, 4.19) | |
| ≥2 | 150 (34) | 34 (11) | 3.90 (2.54, 5.99) | 4.06 (2.61, 6.30) | 138 (15) | 13 (3) | 6.44 (3.57, 11.61) | 6.03 (3.33, 10.92) | |
| Continuous | |||||||||
| OR per 1 dysplastic naevi | 1.20 (1.11, 1.30) | 1.20 (1.11, 1.30) | 1.78 (1.47, 2.17) | 1.74 (1.43, 2.11) | <.0001 | ||||
| Naevi >5 mm | |||||||||
| Categories | |||||||||
| 0 | 51 (12) | 92 (34) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 405 (46) | 324 (68) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| 1–2 | 65 (15) | 72 (27) | 1.68 (1.02, 2.75) | 1.72 (1.04, 2.85) | 313 (35) | 126 (26) | 1.91 (1.48, 2.46) | 1.83 (1.41, 2.37) | |
| >2 | 306 (73) | 104 (39) | 5.46 (3.55, 8.40) | 5.02 (3.23, 7.79) | 164 (19) | 30 (6) | 4.25 (2.80, 6.46) | 3.91 (2.56, 5.98) | |
| Continuous | |||||||||
| Whole‐body OR per 1 naevi >5 mm†† | 9 (2, 22) | 2 (0, 5) | 1.06 (1.04, 1.08) | 1.06 (1.04, 1.07) | 1 (0, 2) | 0 (0, 1) | 1.28 (1.20, 1.38) | 1.26 (1.18, 1.36) | <.0001 |
| Whole‐body OR per adjusted SD increase in naevi >5 mm‡‡ | 2.01 (1.55, 2.60) | 1.87 (1.43, 2.43) | 1.86 (1.56, 2.23) | 1.79 (1.49, 2.14) | 0.93 | ||||
CI, confidence interval; IQR, interquartile range; OR, odds ratio; SD, standard deviation.
Data were missing for participants who did not have a clinical skin examination (353 in Australia, 876 in Leeds). In addition, data were missing for Leeds for trunk (1), upper limbs (1) and lower limbs (7).
†Models adjusted for age (continuous), sex and city of recruitment in Australia.
‡Further adjusted for pigmentation score and hair colour.
§P‐value for the interaction between naevus phenotype and population (Australia/Leeds) using minimally adjusted models.
¶P‐value based on model excluding the top category
††OR per 1‐unit increase in naevus count modelled as a continuous variable.
‡‡OR per adjusted standard deviation, stratified by country (Australia/Leeds) and adjusted for age (5‐year groups) and sex, using the OPERA method.22