Table 3.
Sensitivity analysis for estimates of production losses associated with alcohol-attributable mortality in 28 European Union countries, 2016.
| Average Change from BS 1 | Minimum Change from Base Scenario | Maximum Change from Base Scenario | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discount rate (BS: 5%) | |||
| 3.5% | 12.6% | 10.6% (Germany) | 15.5% (Cyprus) |
| 0% | 58.3% | 47.5% (Germany) | 77.1% (Cyprus) |
| Coefficient to adjust for decreasing marginal labor productivity (BS: 0.65) | |||
| 0.6 | −7.7% | −7.7% (all countries) | |
| 0.7 | 7.7% | 7.7% (all countries) | |
| Productivity measure (BS: gross domestic product) | |||
| Gross value added | −12.1% | −5.7% (Ireland) | −17.9% (Croatia) |
| 95% confidence interval for the number of alcohol-attributable deaths (BS: point estimate) | |||
| Lower bound | −31.7% | −20.8% (Portugal) | −51.6% (Malta) |
| Upper bound | 34.9% | 20.7% (Lithuania) | 67.9% (Malta) |
1 Notes: BS—base scenario; results for BS shown in Table 2.