Table 2.

Relative risk and 95% confidence interval for the 5-year incidence of type 2 diabetes according to LAP trajectories and baseline LAP

Variables	N	Cases (%)	Model 1a Adjusted RR (95% CI)	Model 2b Adjusted RR (95% CI)	Model 3c Adjusted RR (95% CI)
LAP trajectories	4508	169 (3.8)
Trajectory 1: low	3639	78 (2.1)	1.00 (Ref)	1.00 (Ref)	1.00 (Ref)
Trajectory 2: moderate	800	80 (10.0)	3.51 (2.57–4.80)	2.56 (1.78–3.70)	1.95 (1.41–2.70)
Trajectory 3: high	69	11 (15.9)	7.68 (4.12–14.32)	5.20 (2.77–9.76)	2.20 (1.12–4.30)
P value for trend			< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001
Baseline LAP (groups)d	4179	154 (3.7)
First group: (< 42.4)	3368	69 (2.1)	1.00 (Ref)	1.00 (Ref)	1.00 (Ref)
Second group: (42.4 ≤ ~ < 121.6)	748	78 (10.4)	3.60 (2.61–4.96)	2.56 (1.76–3.73)	1.73 (1.25–2.38)
Third group: (≥121.6)	63	7 (11.1)	4.62 (2.21–9.66)	2.61 (1.15–5.95)	1.47 (0.66–3.31)
P value for trend			< 0.001	< 0.001	0.006
Baseline LAP (tertiles)	4179	154 (3.7)
First tertile: (< 12.7)	1393	12 (0.9)	1.00 (Ref)	1.00 (Ref)	1.00 (Ref)
Second tertile: (12.7 ≤ ~ < 29.3)	1394	27 (1.9)	1.33 (0.67–2.66)	1.04 (0.52–2.07)	1.03 (0.52–2.03)
Third tertile: (≥29.3)	1392	115 (8.3)	4.90 (2.65–9.06)	2.93 (1.52–5.65)	1.91 (0.97–3.74)
P value for trend			< 0.001	< 0.001	0.007

LAP lipid accumulation product

^aModel 1: adjusted for baseline age, gender, race, current smoking, current alcohol drinking, and married status

^bModel 2: further adjusted for baseline diagnosis of hypertension, use of antihypertensive, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, hemoglobin, creatinine, and uric acid

^cModel 3: further adjusted for baseline blood glucose and family history of diabetes

^dFrom first to the third group, the proportions of subjects were 80.6, 17.9, and 1.5%, respectively. The divisions were consistent with the proportions of different LAP trajectories