Table 2.
Results from health impact modelling over the lifetime (n = 2,832,241), Scenario 1 and 2
| Results | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | Sensitivity | Base case | Sensitivity | |||
| Higher MET value | 10 years to effect | Higher MET value | 10 years to effect | |||
| Total life years gained | 346 (110–872) | 707 (205–1689) | 240 (74–584) | 4244 (2580-7428) | 8545 (5046–15,422) | 1451 (436–3592) |
| Total health-adjusted life years gained | 553 (172–1354) | 1132 (325–2686) | 373 (114–926) | 5431 (3062–9805) | 10,912 (5990–21,227) | 2153 (663–5128) |
| Total healthcare cost-savings | AUD6M (AUD2M–15 M) | AUD13M (AUD4M–30 M) | AUD4M (AUD1M–10 M) | AUD49M (AUD24M–98 M) | AUD99M (AUD47M–211 M) | AUD23M (AUD8M–56 M) |
| Difference in transport injury-related mortality* (absolute number) | 1 (1–2) | 1 (1–2) | 1 (1–1) | −4 (− 3 to − 5) | − 4 (− 2 to − 6) | −16 (− 17 to − 15) |
| Difference in transport injury-related morbiditya (absolute number) | − 195 (− 192 to − 196) | − 193 (− 188 to − 195) | − 199 (− 197 to − 200) | − 1166 (− 1149 to − 1174) | − 1166 (− 1137 to − 1179) | − 1198 (− 1204 to − 1185) |
Table notes: a minus means transport injury-related morbidity or mortality savings. AUD: 2010 Australian dollars; M million, MET metabolic equivalent task. Values are absolute values for the cohort