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. 2019 Oct 23;9:15213. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-51607-w

Figure 1.

Figure 1

Temperature and match-mismatch effects on the fluctuations of the fish populations. Simulation and projection of the change of the theoretical fish population following the change of strength of the match-mismatch relationship as driven by environmental conditions. Simulation (before 2013, dots, with red circles showing initial values) and projection (3 different runs; run 1 = plain red, run 2 = dotted green and run 3 = dashed blue line, all starting in 2013 and running for 50 years) of the population change for (a) an Arcto-boreal fish in the Barents Sea between 1921 and 2063 and for (b) a temperate fish in the Bay of Biscay between 1960 and 2063. The projection was done using the climatic changes projected by the CMIP5 simulations of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) based on the MPI-ESM-LR model (RCP 4.5 experiment, 3 runs). The length of the simulation depends on the length of the data available (Supplementary Table S1). Note that the three runs deviate due to the natural variability in the physical environmental projections.