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. 2019 Oct 23;9:15213. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-51607-w

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© The Author(s) 2019

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Effect of climate change on match-mismatch and population change in two different biomes. The curves show mean hypothetical seasonal trends in food requirements of a predator population’s offspring (black) and the abundance of their prey (in blue) for the two biomes for historical (1980–2000) and future (2040–2060) periods. The bars show the interannual variability (the 0.2 and 0.8 quantiles). The x-axis is in months and the y-axis in arbitrary unit. The total food requirement (the area under the black curve) is assumed to scale with the abundance of adult predators (Supplementary methods). The overlap between the curves (green shaded area) gives an indication of the reproductive success of the predator, with larger overlap indicating stronger recruitment to the predator population⁹. A decrease of temporal asynchrony and/or an increase of prey relative to predator abundance increase overlap.