Figure 4. Standardized coefficients from multi-level logistic regression models predicting the trial n switch/no-switch choice on the basis of players’ and opponents’ switch/repeat choices on trials n-1 to n-3 and the opponents’ overall switch rate.

Error bars are standard errors around the coefficients. To focus on the difference in the strength of relationships rather than their sign, the labels for all opponent predictors were reversed for post-loss trials (see section Analytic Strategy for Testing Main Prediction). In addition, we also reversed the labels for all player-related predictors with a win/loss switch in sign. For a statistical test of the size difference between post-win and post-loss coefficients, all history/context variables were included into one model together with the post-win/post-loss contrast and the interaction between this contrast and each of the history/context predictors. Significance levels of the interaction terms are indicated in the figure,<0.05, *<0.01, ***<0.001.

Figure 4—figure supplement 1. History analysis with signed action choices.

Our main analyses to test the win/loss difference in the strength of the relationships between history/context and current choices involved selectively reversing labels of some of the predictors (see Figure 4). This figure supplement shows the, original, signed coefficients. For the opponent-related predictors, coefficients were generally positive following win feedback and negative, albeit smaller in size, following loss feedback. For player-related effects, the strength of the effects was also stronger following win than following loss trials, but the signs of the coefficients were less consistent than for the opponent-related predictors. Generally, these results are consistent with the conclusion that loss-feedback dampens the influence of the recent task context in general, not just as it relates to the opponents’ overall strategy.

Figure 4—figure supplement 2. Alternative analysis of history effects.

Aside from history analyses presented in Figure 4, we also conducted a more straightforward assessment of the effect of history on switch/repeat choices that did not require selective recoding of predictors. Specifically, we performed individual, logistic regression analyses for each subject, and separately for post-win and post-loss trials. Given that the effect of overall switch context was already demonstrated in our initial analyses (see Figure 2), we only included here the players’ and the opponents’ trial n-1 to n-3 switch/repeat choices as predictors. This figure supplement shows for each experiment the histograms of Cox and Snell pseudo R²-square scores from logistic regression models fitted within subjects (dark green shading indicates overlapping regions of the distributions). The difference in fit scores between post-win/loss was tested via t-test after converting R² values into z-score (Cox, 2018). As apparent, post-win distributions were in all cases significantly farther to the right than post-loss distributions. Thus, these analyses confirm that following wins, switch/no-switch decisions are overall more dependent on history than post-loss decisions.