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. 2019 Oct 28;9:15388. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-51398-0

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© The Author(s) 2019

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Time series models in comparison to measured target eDNA concentration and fish counts. (a) The ARIMA (2, 0, 0)-modelled eDNA concentration (grey line) and 95% confidence area (blue shading) in comparison to measured eDNA concentration (blue line). (b) Modelled fish counts using the same ARIMA model structure (grey line; red shading for 95% confidence area) in comparison to the actual fish counts (red line). (c) ARIMA-modelled eDNA concentrations (grey line and blue shading) in comparison to actual fish counts (red line). Values outside the 95% confidence area are marked as black dots, eDNA concentration is based on the sum of Alburnus mento and Vimba vimba (copies/µl extract) from point 1 samples, and fish counts are the sum of mean counts from all river sections divided by discharge; to enable direct comparison between time series, these values were additionally multiplied by five.