Table 1.
De Novo VHD CPMs Overview
| Author, Model Name | Publication, y | Valve | Standardized Type of Intervention | Outcome | Model Method | C‐Statistic | Calibration Measure | Externally Validated? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isolated valve | ||||||||
| Edwards,16 STS (original) Isolated Valve | 2001 | Aortic/Mitral | Surgery | 30 d operative mortality | Logistic regression | 0.766 | HL statistic, Calibration plot | Yes |
| Nowicki,17 NNE Aortic and Mitral Models | 2004 | Aortic | Surgery | In‐hospital mortality | Logistic regression, score | 0.75 | HL statistic | Yes |
| Mitral | Surgery | In‐hospital mortality | Logistic regression, score | 0.79 | HL statistic | Yes | ||
| Kuduvalli,18 NWQIP | 2007 | Aortic | Surgery | In‐hospital mortality | Logistic regression, score | 0.78 | HL statistic | Yes |
| Cruz‐Gonzalez,19 PMV Score | 2009 | Mitral | Percutaneous | Procedural success | Logistic regression, score | NR | HL statistic | Yes |
| Monin20 | 2009 | Aortic stenosis | Natural History | Composite (Non‐MACE) | Logistic regression, score | 0.90 | HL statistic | Yes |
| O'Brien,9 STS (2009)—Composite AEs | 2009 | Aortic/Mitral | Surgery | Composite (Non‐MACE) | Logistic regression | 0.721 | None | Yes |
| O'Brien,9 STS (2009)—DSWI | 2009 | Aortic/Mitral | Surgery | DSWI | Logistic regression | 0.704 | None | Yes |
| O'Brien,9 STS (2009)—Mortality | 2009 | Aortic/Mitral | Surgery | 30 d mortality | Logistic regression | 0.805 | None | Yes |
| O'Brien,9 STS (2009)—Prolonged LOS | 2009 | Aortic/Mitral | Surgery | Prolonged LOS | Logistic regression | 0.77 | None | Yes |
| O'Brien,9 STS (2009)—Prolonged Ventilation | 2009 | Aortic/Mitral | Surgery | Prolonged ventilation | Logistic regression | 0.77 | None | Yes |
| O'Brien,9 STS (2009)—Renal Failure | 2009 | Aortic/Mitral | Surgery | Renal failure | Logistic regression | 0.782 | None | Yes |
| O'Brien,9 STS (2009)—Reoperation | 2009 | Aortic/Mitral | Surgery | Reoperation | Logistic regression | 0.643 | None | Yes |
| O'Brien,9 STS (2009)—Short LOS | 2009 | Aortic/Mitral | Surgery | Prolonged LOS | Logistic regression | 0.738 | None | No |
| O'Brien,9 STS (2009)—Stroke | 2009 | Aortic/Mitral | Surgery | Stroke | Logistic regression | 0.694 | None | Yes |
| Guaragna,21 GuaragnaSCORE | 2010 | Aortic/Mitral | Surgery | In‐hospital mortality | Logistic regression, score | 0.82 | HL statistic, Calibration plot | Yes |
| Guo22 | 2010 | Aortic | Surgery | In‐hospital mortality | Logistic regression | NR | HL statistic | No |
| Mitral | Surgery | In‐hospital mortality | Logistic regression | NR | HL statistic | No | ||
| Elmariah,23 CRRAC the AV Score | 2011 | Aortic | Percutaneous | 30 d mortality | Cox regression, score | 0.754 | HL statistic | No |
| Bouleti24 | 2012 | Mitral | Percutaneous | Composite (MACE) | Cox regression, score | 0.74 | Calibration plot | No |
| Cioffi25 | 2012 | Aortic stenosis | Natural History | Composite (MACE) | Cox regression, score | NR | None | No |
| Holme,26 SEAS Score | 2012 | Aortic stenosis | Natural History | 5 y mortality | Cox regression | 0.722 | HL statistic, Calibration plot, Brier score | No |
| Kötting,27 German Aortic Valve Score | 2013 | Aortic | Percutaneous | In‐Hospital Mortality | Logistic regression, score | 0.808 | HL statistic | Yes |
| Arnold,28 6 mo and 1 y Models | 2014 | Aortic stenosis | Percutaneous | Composite (Non‐MACE) | Logistic regression | 0.66 | HL statistics, Calibration plot | Yes |
| Aortic stenosis | Percutaneous | Composite (Non‐MACE) | Logistic regression | 0.66 | HL statistics, Calibration plot | Yes | ||
| Capodanno,29 OBSERVANT Score | 2014 | Aortic stenosis | Percutaneous | 30 d mortality | Logistic regression, score | 0.73 | HL statistic, Calibration plot, Brier score | Yes |
| D'Ascenzo,30 Survival Post‐TAVI (STT)—30 d and 1 y Models | 2014 | Aortic | Percutaneous | 30 d mortality | Logistic regression, score | 0.66 | HL statistic | Yes |
| Aortic | Percutaneous | 1 y mortality | Logistic regression, score | 0.68 | HL statistic | Yes | ||
| Iung31 | 2014 | Aortic | Percutaneous | 30 d mortality | Logistic regression, score | 0.67 | HL statistic, Calibration in the large, Calibration plot | No |
| Debonnaire,32 TAVI2‐SCORe | 2015 | Aortic | Percutaneous | 1 y mortality | Cox regression, score | 0.715 | HL statistic, Calibration in the large | Yes |
| Edwards7 | 2016 | Aortic | Percutaneous | In‐hospital mortality | Logistic regression | 0.67 | HL statistics, Calibration in the large, Calibration plot | Yes |
| Isolated or multiple valve | ||||||||
| Koplan33 | 2003 | All | Surgery | Pacemaker placement | Logistic regression, score | NR | None | No |
| Ambler34 | 2005 | Aortic, mitral | Surgery | In‐hospital mortality | Logistic regression, Score | 0.77 | HL statistic, Calibration plot | Yes |
| Xu35 | 2006 | All | Surgery | Prolonged LOS | Logistic regression | 0.81 | Calibration in table form | No |
| Hannan36 | 2007 | Aortic, mitral | Surgery | In‐hospital mortality | Logistic regression, Score | 0.794 | HL statistic, Calibration plot | Yes |
| Xu,37 Fuwai Score | 2007 | All | Surgery | Prolonged LOS | Logistic regression, Score | 0.76 | HL statistic, Calibration plot | Yes |
| Shi38 | 2010 | Aortic, mitral | Surgery | In‐hospital mortality | Logistic regression | 0.7358 | None | No |
| Ariyaratne,39 Aus‐AVR Score | 2011 | Aortic, mitral | Surgery | 30 d mortality | Logistic regression, Score | 0.78 | HL statistic, Calibration in the large | Yes |
| Nashef,10 EuroSCORE II | 2012 | All | Surgery | In‐hospital mortality | Logistic regression | 0.8095 | None | Yes |
| Hannan,40 NY Operative Mortality Risk Score | 2013 | Aortic, mitral | Surgery | 30 d mortality | Logistic regression, Score | 0.781 | HL statistic | Yes |
| Wang41 | 2013 | All | Surgery | Prolonged ventilation | Logistic regression | 0.789 | HL statistic | No |
| Zheng42 | 2013 | Aortic, mitral | Surgery | In‐hospital mortality | Logistic regression, Score | 0.76 | HL statistic, Chi‐square statistic, Calibration plot | No |
| Multiple valve | ||||||||
| Guo22 | 2010 | Aortic, mitral | Surgery | In‐hospital mortality | Logistic regression | NR | HL statistic | No |
| Rankin,43 AM Preop | 2013 | Aortic, mitral | Surgery | 30 d mortality | Logistic regression | NR | Calibration plot | Yes |
| Rankin,43 MT Preop | 2013 | mitral, tricuspid | Surgery | 30 d mortality | Logistic regression | NR | Calibration plot | Yes |
| Rankin,43 AMT Preop | 2013 | Aortic, mitral, tricuspid | Surgery | 30 d mortality | Logistic regression | NR | Calibration plot | Yes |
| Rankin,43 AM Preop + Intraop | 2013 | Aortic, mitral | Surgery | 30 d mortality | Logistic regression | NR | Calibration plot | Yes |
| Rankin,43 MT Preop + Intraop | 2013 | Mitral, tricuspid | Surgery | 30 d mortality | Logistic regression | NR | Calibration plot | Yes |
| Rankin,43 AMT Preop + Intraop | 2013 | Aortic, mitral, tricuspid | Surgery | 30 d mortality | Logistic regression | NR | Calibration plot | Yes |
AEs indicates adverse events; AM, aortic, mitral ; AMT, aortic, mitral, tricuspid; AV, aortic valvuloplasty; Aus‐AVR, Australian aortic valve replacement; CRRAC, critical status, renal dysfunction, right atrial pressure, and cardiac output; DSWI, deep sternal wound infections; EuroSCORE, European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation; HL, Hosmer‐Lemeshow; LOS, length of stay; MACE, major adverse cardiovascular events; MT, mitral, tricuspid; NNE, Northern New England; NR, not reported; NWQIP, North West Quality Improvement Programme in Cardiac Interventions; NY, New York; OBSERVANT, Observational Study of Appropriateness, Efficacy and Effectiveness of AVR‐TAVR Procedures for the Treatment of Severe Symptomatic Aortic Stenosis; PMV, percutaneous mitral valvuloplasty; SEAS, Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis; STS, Society of Thoracic Surgeons; STT, Survival posT‐TAVI; TAVI, transcatheter aortic valve implantation; TAVR, Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement.