Table 6.
CPMs that Have Been Validated ≥2 Times in Related Populations
| De Novo CPM | External Validations in Related Populations (n) | Validation C‐statistic, median (IQR) | % Change in Discrimination,a Median (IQR) | Any Calibration Reported (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pub., Y | Model Name | ||||
| 2001 | STS (original): Isolated Valve | 2 | 0.77 (0.77, 0.77) | 2.6 (2.6–2.6) | 100 |
| 2004 | NNE Aortic | 2 | 0.76 (0.76, 0.77) | 4.0 (2.0–6.0) | 100 |
| 2007 | NWQIP | 2 | 0.78 (0.77, 0.78) | −1.8 (−2.7–−0.9) | 100 |
| 2005 | Ambler | 4 | 0.73 (0.72, 0.76) | −15.2 (−18.9–−2.2) | 100 |
| 2009 | STS: Mortality | 19 | 0.74 (0.71, 0.79) | −21.3 (−31.5–−4.8) | 95 |
| 2009 | STS: Stroke | 2 | 0.65 (0.65, 0.66) | −20.9 (−23.8–−17.9) | 0 |
| 2009 | STS: Prolonged Ventilation | 2 | 0.72 (0.68, 0.75) | −20.2 (−33.8–−6.6) | 0 |
| 2009 | STS: Prolonged LOS | 2 | 0.67 (0.65, 0.68) | −38.1 (−43.5–−32.8) | 0 |
| 2009 | STS: Renal Failure | 2 | 0.76 (0.72, 0.79) | −9.6 (−22.5–3.4) | 0 |
| 2009 | STS: DSWI | 2 | 0.68 (0.65, 0.70) | −13.7 (−24.8–−2.7) | 0 |
| 2009 | STS: Composite AEs | 2 | 0.68 (0.65, 0.71) | −18.8 (−30.7–−6.9) | 0 |
| 2009 | STS: Reoperation | 2 | 0.64 (0.63, 0.65) | −2.1 (−11.9–7.7) | 0 |
| 2011 | Aus‐AVR Score | 3 | 0.72 (0.67, 0.72) | −22.9 (−40.4–−20.4) | 100 |
| 2012 | EuroSCORE II | 5 | 0.82 (0.76, 0.85) | 2.6 (−16.0–13.1) | 80 |
| 2013 | NY Operative Mortality Risk Score | 3 | 0.73 (0.71, 0.75) | −18.1 (−26.5–−9.8) | 66.7 |
| 2014 | OBSERVANT Score | 4 | 0.60 (0.58, 0.61) | −57.8 (−63.7–50.7) | 50 |
| 2014 | STT: 30 d | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 50 |
AEs indicates adverse events; Aus‐AVR, Australian aortic valve replacement; CPM indicates clinical predictive models; DSWI, deep sternal wound infections; EuroSCORE, European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation; IQR, interquartile range; LOS, length of stay; NNE, Northern New England; NWQIP, North West Quality Improvement Programme in Cardiac Interventions; NY, New York; OBSERVANT, Observational Study of Appropriateness, Efficacy and Effectiveness of AVR‐TAVR Procedures for the Treatment of Severe Symptomatic Aortic Stenosis; STS, Society of Thoracic Surgeons; STT, Survival posT‐TAVI; TAVI, transcatheter aortic valve implantation.
Change in discrimination is calculated as [(Validation AUC−0.5)−(Derivation AUC−0.5)]/(Derivation AUC−0.5)×100.