Table 5.
Predictive accuracy of static and dynamic risk measures for inpatient aggression in the total sample.
| Up to 1 month |
Up to 3 months |
Up to 6 months |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measure | AUC (SE) | 95% CI | AUC (SE) | 95% CI | AUC (SE) | 95% CI |
| Interpersonal violence | ||||||
| (s) H Scale | .63 (.11) | [.42, .84] | .68 (.08) | [.52, .83] | .64 (.08) | [.48, .80] |
| (s) PCL-R | .59 (.08) | [.43, .75] | .58 (.07) | [.43, .72] | .56 (.07) | [.42, .70] |
| (d) HCR-20 Total | .89* (.05) | [.80, .98] | .82* (.07) | [.69, .94] | .80* (.06) | [.67, .92] |
| (d) C Scale | .93* (.04) | [.85, 1.00] | .86* (.07) | [.72, 1.00] | .84* (.07) | [.71, .97] |
| (d) R Scale | .85* (.06) | [.74, .97] | .73* (.09) | [.56, .90] | .73* (.08) | [.57, .88] |
| (d) C+R Scale | .92* (.04) | [.85, .99] | .82* (.07) | [.69, .94] | .81* (.06) | [.68, .94] |
| (d) START | .94* (.03) | [.87, 1.00] | .85* (.06) | [.72, .96] | .84* (.06) | [.72, .95] |
| (d) MHOAT-Risk | .90* (.05) | [.79, 1.00] | .84* (.06) | [.72, .96] | .83* (.06) | [.72, .94] |
| (d) HoNOS-secure | .95* (.03) | [.91, 1.00] | .83* (.08) | [.68, .99] | .83* (.07) | [.68, .97] |
| (d) DRS | .89* (.04) | [.81, .98] | .78* (.08) | [.63, .93] | .78* (.07) | [.64, .92] |
| Verbal threat | ||||||
| (s) H Scale | .54 (.10) | [.35, .73] | .55 (.09) | [.37, .73] | .58 (.08) | [.42, .74] |
| (s) PCL-R | .61 (.10) | [.42, .80] | .67* (.08) | [.51, .83] | .68* (.07) | [.54, .83] |
| (d) HCR-20 Total | .80* (.06) | [.68, .92] | .80* (.05) | [.70, .90] | .74* (.07) | [.61, .86] |
| (d) C Scale | .86* (.06) | [.67, .91] | .80* (.06) | [.69, .90] | .70* (.08) | [.56, .86] |
| (d) R Scale | .77* (.08) | [.62, .93] | .79* (.06) | [.67, .90] | .72* (.07) | [.59, .86] |
| (d) C+R Scale | .84* (.07) | [.71, .92] | .82* (.05) | [.72, .93] | .73* (.08) | [.58, .88] |
| (d) START | .93* (.03) | [.86, .99] | .92* (.03) | [.86, .98] | .86* (.06) | [.74, .97] |
| (d) MHOAT-Risk | .87* (.05) | [.76, .97] | .86* (.05) | [.77, .95] | .81* (.05) | [.70, .91] |
| (d) HoNOS-secure | .92* (.04) | [.84, .99] | .92* (.03) | [.86, .99] | .86* (.06) | [.74, .99] |
| (d) DRS | .79* (.06) | [.67, .91] | .77* (.05) | [.66, .87] | .68* (.07) | [.53, .82] |
| Any aggression | ||||||
| (s) H Scale | .59 (.08) | [.43, .75] | .63 (.07) | [.49, .77] | .64* (.07) | [.51, .77] |
| (s) PCL-R | .60 (.08) | [.44, .77] | .65* (.07) | [.52, .78] | .66* (.07) | [.53, .79] |
| (d) HCR-20 Total | .85* (.05) | [.75, .95] | .85* (.04) | [.77, .94] | .80* (.05) | [.70, .90] |
| (d) C Scale | .89* (.05) | [.80, .99] | .85* (.05) | [.76, .94] | .78* (.06) | [.66, .90] |
| (d) R Scale | .83* (.07) | [.70, .95] | .80* (.06) | [.69, .91] | .76* (.06) | [.64, .87] |
| (d) C+R Scale | .89* (.05) | [.78, .99] | .86* (.04) | [.77, .95] | .79* (.06) | [.68, .91] |
| (d) START | .95* (.03) | [.91, 1.00] | .94* (.03) | [.89, .99] | .90* (.04) | [.82, .98] |
| (d) MHOAT-Risk | .89* (.04) | [.80, .98] | .89* (.04) | [.82, .96] | .86* (.04) | [.78, .94] |
| (d) HoNOS-secure | .95* (.03) | [.90, 1.00] | .94* (.04) | [.87, 1.00] | .90* (.05) | [.80, .99] |
| (d) DRS | .84* (.05) | [.73, .94] | .80* (.05) | [.70, .90] | .73* (.06) | [.61, .86] |
Note: (s) = static measure. (d) = dynamic measure. Boldface font denotes significance after FDR corrections.
*p < .05 .