Table 4.
Programme sensitivity, interval cancers and Screen detected cancer characteristics of the Population-based Mammographic Screening Programme, Flanders Belgium 2002–2016
| Performance indicator [EU desirable target] | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | AAPC all years | APC last segment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | (95% CI) | Yeara | % | (95% CI) | ||||||||||||||||
| All cancers (screen detected & interval cancers), N | 1071 | 1229 | 1147 | 1215 | 1407 | 1317 | 1450 | 1486 | 1543 | 1732 | 1702 | 1848 | 1726 | n.a. | ||||||
| Screen detected cancers, N | 797 | 894 | 789 | 856 | 967 | 888 | 952 | 976 | 1018 | 1126 | 1153 | 1227 | 1123 | 1195 | ||||||
| Programme sensitivity, % | 74.4 | 72.7 | 68.8 | 70.5 | 68.7 | 67.4 | 65.7 | 65.7 | 66.0 | 65.0 | 67.7 | 66.4 | 65.1 | |||||||
| initial screens, % | 74.4 | 73.0 | 69.4 | 71.2 | 72.3 | 66.4 | 65.8 | 68.5 | 65.5 | 67.7 | 70.6 | 61.7 | 61.0 | −1.3b | (−2.4; −0.1) | 2012 | −6.5 | (− 13.3; + 0.8) | ||
| subsequent irregular screens, % | 73.0 | 72.0 | 70.3 | 69.0 | 71.1 | 73.9 | 67.0 | 66.7 | 71.2 | 73.8 | 68.8 | −0.1 | (−1.5; + 1.3) | |||||||
| subsequent regular screens, % | 68.8 | 65.9 | 69.3 | 65.0 | 67.7 | 64.5 | 62.7 | 66.0 | 63.8 | 66.1 | 66.6 | 65.6 | + 1.0 | (− 0.5; + 2.5) | 2005 | − 0.4 | (−1.2; + 0.5) | |||
| Interval cancers, N | 274 | 335 | 358 | 359 | 440 | 429 | 498 | 510 | 525 | 606 | 549 | 621 | 603 | n.a. | ||||||
| Diagnosed in first year after screening, % | 36.9 | 43.3 | 38.5 | 35.7 | 35.5 | 33.8 | 36.5 | 35.5 | 34.1 | 36.3 | 39.3 | 39.5 | 37.1 | −0.1 | (−1.3; + 1.1) | |||||
| Diagnosed after positive screen, % | 22.3 | 21.5 | 17.0 | 12.3 | 16.6 | 14.0 | 16.3 | 12.9 | 10.3 | 11.7 | 10.0 | 10.5 | 9.6 | −6.4b | (−8.5; −4.2) | |||||
| Interval cancer rate, ‰ | 3.3 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 | |||||||
| initial screens, ‰ | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | + 1.5 | (−0.3; + 3.4) | |||||
| subsequent irregular screens, ‰ | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 3.7 | + 3.2b | (+ 0.3; + 6.1) | |||||||
| subsequent regular screens, ‰ | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | + 0.5 | (−0.9; + 1.9) | ||||||
| Characteristics screen detected cancers, initial screens | ||||||||||||||||||||
| SDC total, N | 797 | 825 | 449 | 373 | 415 | 295 | 287 | 281 | 245 | 262 | 259 | 214 | 210 | 247 | ||||||
| ductal carcinoma in-situ (DCIS), N | 140 | 132 | 72 | 59 | 75 | 50 | 58 | 53 | 41 | 64 | 35 | 48 | 35 | 44 | ||||||
| invasive, N | 657 | 693 | 377 | 314 | 340 | 245 | 229 | 228 | 204 | 198 | 224 | 166 | 175 | 203 | ||||||
| Stage, % | DCIS [10–20%] | 17.6 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 15.8 | 18.1 | 16.9 | 20.2 | 18.9 | 16.7 | 24.4 | 13.5 | 22.4 | 16.7 | 18.2 | −1.2 | (−3.2; + 0.9) | |||
| Invasive SDC stage I | 40.7 | 45.0 | 46.3 | 48.8 | 47.0 | 46.4 | 42.2 | 44.1 | 48.2 | 42.7 | 48.6 | 52.3 | 43.8 | 42.9 | ||||||
| Invasive SDC stage ≥II [< 30%] | 24.7 | 31.0 | 33.0 | 30.8 | 32.3 | 32.9 | 36.6 | 34.9 | 31.8 | 31.7 | 35.9 | 25.2 | 38.6 | 31.2 | + 1.9b | (+ 0.3; + 3.6) | ||||
| Invasive SDC stage unknown | 17.1 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 7.7 | ||||||
| Nodal status, % | Node - [> 70%] | 51.0 | 61.5 | 62.9 | 66.2 | 62.6 | 65.3 | 62.9 | 67.5 | 63.7 | 68.7 | 64.7 | 71.7 | 63.4 | 61.6 | + 1.7 | (−0.3; + 3.7) | 2004 | + 0.1 | (−0.8; + 1.1) |
| Node + | 20.2 | 23.5 | 26.3 | 22.3 | 26.8 | 25.7 | 32.8 | 29.4 | 29.4 | 28.3 | 29.0 | 25.9 | 30.9 | 24.6 | ||||||
| Unknown (invasive SDC) | 28.8 | 15.0 | 10.9 | 11.5 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 13.8 | ||||||
| Characteristics screen detected cancers, subsequent irregular screens | ||||||||||||||||||||
| SDC total, N | 3 | 108 | 113 | 137 | 116 | 118 | 136 | 124 | 138 | 161 | 141 | 139 | 175 | |||||||
| ductal carcinoma in-situ (DCIS), N | 0 | 15 | 11 | 15 | 21 | 17 | 21 | 21 | 23 | 28 | 19 | 20 | 25 | |||||||
| invasive, N | 3 | 93 | 102 | 122 | 95 | 101 | 115 | 103 | 115 | 133 | 122 | 119 | 150 | |||||||
| Stage, % | DCIS | 13.9 | 9.7 | 10.9 | 18.1 | 14.4 | 15.4 | 16.9 | 16.7 | 17.4 | 13.5 | 14.4 | 14.9 | + 3.5 | (−1.1; + 8.4) | |||||
| Invasive SDC stage I | 56.5 | 62.8 | 51.8 | 46.6 | 47.5 | 53.7 | 46.0 | 49.3 | 54.7 | 61.7 | 54.0 | 56.6 | ||||||||
| Invasive SDC stage ≥II | 25.0 | 23.9 | 35.8 | 31.9 | 37.3 | 29.4 | 33.1 | 33.3 | 28.0 | 24.1 | 31.7 | 24.6 | + 2.6 | (−4.5; + 10.2) | 2007 | −5.1 | (−10.6; + 0.8) | |||
| Invasive SDC stage unknown | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 4.0 | ||||||||
| Nodal status, % | Node (−) | 68.8 | 73.5 | 63.9 | 65.3 | 69.3 | 72.2 | 61.2 | 70.4 | 72.2 | 77.0 | 70.6 | 66.0 | −0.0 | (−1.6; + 1.6) | |||||
| Node (+) | 21.5 | 17.6 | 27.0 | 26.3 | 28.7 | 22.6 | 32.0 | 26.1 | 24.8 | 18.9 | 26.9 | 22.0 | ||||||||
| Unknown (invasive SDC) | 9.7 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 2.0 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 12.0 | ||||||||
| Characteristics screen detected cancers, subsequent regular screens | ||||||||||||||||||||
| SDC total, N | 66 | 232 | 370 | 415 | 477 | 547 | 559 | 649 | 726 | 733 | 872 | 774 | 773 | |||||||
| ductal carcinoma in-situ (DCIS), N | 10 | 36 | 70 | 78 | 83 | 95 | 91 | 93 | 106 | 110 | 141 | 120 | 106 | |||||||
| invasive, N | 56 | 196 | 300 | 337 | 394 | 452 | 468 | 556 | 620 | 623 | 731 | 654 | 667 | |||||||
| Stage, % | DCIS [10–20%] | 15.2 | 15.5 | 18.9 | 18.8 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 16.5 | 14.5 | 14.6 | 15.0 | 16.2 | 16.1 | 14.0 | + 2.5 | (−1.6; + 6.8) | ||||
| Invasive SDC stage I | 60.6 | 52.2 | 45.7 | 52.8 | 52.8 | 52.1 | 51.9 | 56.5 | 56.5 | 54.4 | 56.9 | 56.7 | 55.2 | |||||||
| Invasive SDC stage ≥II [< 25%] | 21.2 | 30.2 | 31.9 | 24.3 | 27.0 | 29.3 | 30.2 | 27.4 | 27.8 | 29.9 | 26.1 | 26.6 | 24.8 | −0.9 | (−2.2; + 0.5) | |||||
| Invasive SDC stage unknown | 3.0 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 6.0 | |||||||
| Nodal status, % | Node (−) [> 75%] | 76.8 | 63.8 | 64.0 | 65.6 | 71.6 | 71.5 | 71.4 | 71.9 | 73.5 | 72.7 | 74.8 | 74.8 | 65.4 | + 0.1 | (−1.3; + 1.5) | ||||
| Node (+) | 16.1 | 25.5 | 25.7 | 22.0 | 22.6 | 23.2 | 25.2 | 23.9 | 23.2 | 24.2 | 22.4 | 21.7 | 23.4 | |||||||
| Unknown (invasive SDC) | 7.1 | 10.7 | 10.3 | 12.5 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 11.2 | |||||||
Numbers in bold are absolute numbers; N.A.: these data exist but are not yet available
AAPC Average Annual Percentage Change, SDC Screen Detected Cancer, DCIS Ductal carcinoma in-situ
athe year of the last joinpoint is the beginning of the last segment
bindicates the (A)APC is significantly different from zero at the alpha = 0.05 level