Table 3.
IMPACTNCD estimates of additional cardiovascular disease (CVD) and gastric cancer cases linked to Responsibility Deal 2011–2025. Negative values in the lower bound of the interquartile ranges (IQR) are a consequence of stochastic noise in the model
| Disease | Period of exposure | Absolute number of additional cases (IQR) | Absolute number of additional deaths (IQR) | Probability of superiority * |
| CVD | ||||
| 2011–2018 | 9900 (6700 to 13,000) | 710 (-510 to 2300) | 2.0% | |
| 2019–2025 | 26 000 (20 000 to 31,000) | 5500 (2800 to 8500) | 0.2% | |
| 2011–2025 | 35 000 (29 000 to 42,000) | 6400 (3200 to 9400) | <0.1% | |
| GCa | ||||
| 2011–2018 | 1500 (510 to 2300) | 610 (-310 to 1500) | 16.0% | |
| 2019–2025 | 3800 (2200 to 5300) | 1900 (790 to 3100) | 5.3% | |
| 2011–2025 | 5300 (3400 to 7200) | 2500 (920 to 3900) | 5.8% |
Numbers are rounded to the second significant digit.
*Probability of superiority represents the probability that the Responsibility Deal scenario had fewer cases than the counterfactual scenario.
GCa, gastric cancer.