Fig. 2. Full accounting of the carbon impact of intact forest loss.

(A, red segments) Conventionally, only emissions from readily observed forest clearance are considered. Forest clearance in intact forest between 2000 and 2013 led to the emission of 338 (372 to 208) Tg C. (B, orange segments) Less readily observed degradation processes that follow forest clearance, including selective logging, edge effects, and defaunation, are rarely accounted for in emission estimates. We expect that these events occurring in intact forest between 2013 and 2050 will lead to the emission of 806 (878 to 465) Tg C. (C, green stippled segments) Forgone carbon removal—carbon sequestration that could have occurred had cleared or degraded forest areas remained intact beyond 2000—is not considered in conventional emission accounting frameworks. If the forested area affected by clearance, logging, or edge effects remained intact beyond 2000, then it could have sequestered 972 (1604 to 331) by 2050. Full accounting of these additional factors (i.e., selective logging, cryptic emissions, and forgone enhancement) led to a 626% increase in cumulative net carbon impact from intact forest loss. Histogram plot shows carbon impacts for the 10 countries with the highest estimated impacts.