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. 2019 Oct 30;10:4945. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-12840-z

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© The Author(s) 2019

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 2 — Examples of the re-forecasted Likelihood of Impact Occurrence (LIO). The figures show the examples of the re-forecasted LIO for three selected lead times (LT = 1, 3, and 5 months) for selected German NUTS-1 regions, i.e. Rheinland-Pfalz (RP) for impact Group 2 (a), and Brandenburg (BB) for impact Group 3 (b). The red line indicates the median re-forecasted LIO. The red-shaded area around the median indicates the ranges in which all ensemble members fall. The gray bars indicate periods with reported impacts (EDII²⁰)