Table 3. Risk of AHS persistence for the largest population of plains zebra in the WCP and stratified by the month of AHS introduction events.
| Month of introduction | mean T (min–Max) | Median duration (IQR) | min—Max | P(> 1 year) (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 24.4°C (18–29) | 150 days (137.75–159) | 91–286 days | 0 (0–0.023) |
| February | 23.8°C (17–30) | 117 days (105.5–130.5) | 83–299 days | 0 (0–0.024) |
| March | 22.9°C (17–30) | 118 days (101–161) | 81–459 days | 0.019 (0.006–0.054) |
| April | 20.5°C (13–27) | 193 days (110.5–421) | 80–492 days | 0.377 (0.306–0.455) |
| May | 18.3°C (12–26) | 131.5 days (84.75–387.25) | 6–494 days | 0.344 (0.275–0.420) |
| June | 16.2°C (11–25) | 23.5 days (18–32) | 7–62 days | 0 (0–0.023) |
| July | 16.0°C (10–25) | 23 days (17–31) | 8–63 days | 0 (0–0.024) |
| August | 17.0°C (10–25) | 24 days (18–31) | 9–66 days | 0 (0–0.023) |
| September | 17.6°C (12–26) | 23 days (19–30.75) | 7–255 days | 0 (0–0.024) |
| October | 19.5°C (13–29) | 24 days (17–42.25) | 9–307 days | 0 (0–0.023) |
| November | 20.7°C (15–30) | 81 days (18–210) | 8–290 days | 0 (0–0.023) |
| December | 23.4°C (17–30) | 180 days (159.5–192) | 109–233 days | 0 (0–0.024) |
T: sunset temperature; IQR: inter-quartile range; 95%CI: 95% confidence interval.
Data computed over monthly incursion from January 2012 to December 2015. Incursions were assumed to occur on the first day of each month.