Fig. 2.

Forest loss increases malaria, while malaria decreases forest loss. Coefficient estimates and partial residual plots illustrating the effect of deforestation (total municipality forest loss) on total malaria incidence (A and B), and of total malaria incidence on deforestation (C and D). Coefficient estimates are plotted for the ordinary least squares (OLS), least-squares dummy variable (LSDV), and instrumental variable (IV) models (A and C). Model diagnostics indicate that the IV model is most appropriate for both analyses. The IV estimator produces consistent estimates but is less efficient than the OLS and LSDV estimators, which leads to larger SEs in IV estimation than in OLS or LSDV (1 SD is plotted in blue around the point estimate in black). Partial residual plots illustrate the estimated effects of deforestation on total malaria (B) and total malaria on deforestation (D) from the IV models, while controlling for other included independent variables.