TABLE 2.

Parameter inputs and sensitivity analysis ranges

Variable	Base-case estimate	Low	High	PSA distribution	Source
Age-specific risk of tumor development
Age 0–15	0.15	0.08	0.27	Beta	Chompret et al
Age 16–45	0.54	0.37	0.71	Beta	Chompret et al
Age 46+	0.68	0.14	0.97	Beta	Chompret et al
Probability of survival
Surveillance	0.84	0.65	1.00	Beta	Villani et al
No surveillance	0.49	0.36	0.64	Beta	Villani et al
Probability of early-stage cancer
Surveillance	0.78	0.22	1.0	Beta	Buys et al/Jarvinen et al/Oluwole et al
No surveillance	0.53	0.22	0.89	Beta	Buys et al/Jarvinen et al/Hofvind et al
Discounting
Effectiveness	0.03	0.01	0.05	Normal
Cost	0.03	0.01	0.05	Normal
Cost of surveillance
Age 0–17	$2279	$1140	$3419	Gamma	Villani et al/CMS
Age 18–30	$3465	$1733	$5198	Gamma	Villani et al/CMS
Age 31+	$2316	$1158	$3474	Gamma	Villani et al/CMS
Cost of cancer treatment
Early-stage (surveillance group)
Age 0–17	$71 872	$35 936	$143 745	Gamma	Mariotto et al
Age 18+	$46 209	$23 105	$92 418	Gamma	Mariotto et al
Late-stage (nonsurveillance group)
Age 0–17	$149 680	$74 840	$299 360	Gamma	Mariotto et al
Age 18+	$120 369	$60 184	$240 738	Gamma	Mariotto et al
Cost of cancer survivorship
Pediatric	$7493	$3746	$14 986	Gamma	Mariotto et al
Adult	$4053	$2016	$8105	Gamma	Mariotto et al