Table 1.

Mean OS estimated from each survival model

Model	Section	AIC	BIC	AUC (K-M 2.25; years)	AUC (K-M new 3.5; years)	AUC K-M + (years)	AUC (lifetime; years)
K-M, 2.25 years [95% CI]				1.05 [0.96–1.14]
K-M new DCO, 3.5 years [95% CI]				1.08 [1.00–1.16]	1.33 [1.21–1.45]
Minimum across all fitted models				1.03	1.14	0.05	1.19
Maximum across all fitted models				1.11	1.37	9.9	11.22
Weibull	3.3	3793	3801	1.03	1.14	0.05	1.19
Exponential		3791	3795	1.03	1.15	0.07	1.22
Gompertz		3792	3800	1.04	1.20	0.38	1.59
Generalised gamma		3779	3792	1.05	1.25	0.58	1.83
Log-normal		3777	3786	1.05	1.26	0.60	1.86
Log-logistic		3783	3791	1.04	1.24	0.87	2.11
Spline 3 months and 1 year	3.4	3780	3796	1.04	1.21	0.31	1.52
Spline 1 year		3779	3792	1.05	1.25	0.52	1.77
Spline 3 months		3779	3792	1.05	1.26	0.59	1.85
Spline 5 knots 3-month intervals		3783	3812	1.06	1.31	2.00	3.31
MCM log-normal UK	3.5	3772	3785	1.04	1.25	0.51	1.76
MCM log-normal USA		3771	3783	1.04	1.25	0.50	1.75
MCM Weibull UK		3780	3792	1.05	1.34	4.47	5.81
MCM Weibull USA		3779	3791	1.05	1.33	4.28	5.61
nMCM log-normal UK		3773	3786	1.04	1.26	0.84	2.10
nMCM log-normal USA		3772	3784	1.04	1.25	0.84	2.09
nMCM Weibull UK		3779	3791	1.05	1.31	3.71	5.02
nMCM Weibull USA		3777	3790	1.05	1.31	3.60	4.91
PMM Weibulla	3.6	3787	NA	1.04	1.32	9.90	11.22
PMM log-normala		3779	NA	1.04	1.28	2.68	3.96
Landmark Gompertzb	3.7	2910	2922	1.05	1.23	0.22	1.45
Landmark generalised gammab		2912	2928	1.05	1.23	0.23	1.46
Landmark exponentialb		2908	2916	1.05	1.23	0.25	1.48
Landmark Weibullb		2910	2922	1.05	1.24	0.24	1.48
Landmark log-logisticb		2920	2932	1.07	1.32	1.40	2.72
Landmark log-normalb		2952	2964	1.09	1.37	1.74	3.11

AIC Akaike information criterion, AUC area under the curve, BIC Bayesian information criterion, CI confidence interval, DCO data cut-off, K–M Kaplan–Meier, K-M +K-M out-of-sample fit, MCM mixture cure model, NA not available, nMCM non-mixture cure model, PMM parametric mixture model, wAIC Watanabe–Akaike information criterion

^awAIC rather than AIC; without background mortality

^bLandmark AIC/BIC are lower than the other AIC/BIC, because they only assess goodness of fit from a landmark time point onwards