Table 3.
Multivariable Predictive Model for CV death or HF hosp (Parsimonious Model)
| Predictor | HR (95% CI) | Chi-Square | P-value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICD or Pacemaker | 2.02 (1.61 – 2.54) | 36.850 | <.001 |
| Sodium | 0.94 (0.91 – 0.97) | 14.651 | <.001 |
| Log of NT-pro-BNP | 1.25 (1.10 – 1.41) | 12.600 | <.001 |
| NYHA Class IV* | 4.34 (1.90 – 9.91) | 12.101 | <.001 |
| NYHA Class III* | 2.01 (1.11 – 3.64) | 5.262 | 0.022 |
| NYHA Class II* | 1.36 (0.75 – 2.47) | 1.048 | 0.306 |
| Sleep apnea | 1.48 (1.15 – 1.89) | 9.621 | 0.002 |
| Log of Creatinine | 1.67 (1.20 – 2.32) | 9.453 | 0.002 |
| Hispanic or Latino | 1.84 (1.24 – 2.72) | 9.295 | 0.002 |
| Black | 1.45 (1.14 – 1.84) | 9.211 | 0.002 |
| Heart Rate | 1.01 (1.00 – 1.02) | 6.281 | 0.012 |
*
Reference is NYHA Class I.
ǂ
Reported model selected from the following list of predictors: NYHA class, prior ICD or pacemaker implantation, black race, Hispanic ethnicity, NT-pro-BNP, sodium, history of sleep apnea, heart rate, creatinine, potassium, history of ischemic heart disease, diastolic BP, depression handled with medication and atrial fibrillation at baseline. Model was selected using backward selection with a significance level of 0.005 as the criterion for variable inclusion.
Uncorrected C-index: 0.707
Optimism-Corrected C-index: 0.694
Calibration (D’agostino, Nam test): p-value=0.33
Baseline Survival at 1 year [S0(1 year)]: 0.8787