Table 4.

Three-Generation Prospective Models and Unadjusted and Adjusted Retrospective Models, PSID

	(1) Prospective Approach		(2) Retrospective Approach
Fertility $f_{\left\{\text{G}2,\text{G}1\right\}}$	Negative Binomial	Mixture Negative Binomial	Truncated NB	Weighted Truncated NB	Weighted Truncated NB + Zero Fertility Adjusted
$f_{\left\{1,1\right\}}$	1.691 (1.012)	1.692 (0.036)	2.366 (0.006)	1.781 (0.009)	1.657 (0.043)
$f_{\left\{1,4\right\}}$	1.415 (0.032)	1.400 (0.080)	2.224 (0.019)	1.605 (0.022)	1.482 (0.098)
$f_{\left\{4,1\right\}}$	1.209 (0.018)	1.211 (0.037)	1.455 (0.012)	1.183 (0.012)	1.107 (0.039)
$f_{\left\{4,4\right\}}$	1.012 (0.028)	1.008 (0.043)	1.368 (0.019)	1.067 (0.019)	0.990 (0.052)
Mobility $p_{\mathrm{G}3\left|\right\{\mathrm{G}2,\mathrm{G}1\}}$	Ordered Logit*
$p_{4|\left\{1,1\right\}}$	0.054 (0.005)	0.054 (0.005)	0.054 (0.005)	0.054 (0.005)	0.054 (0.005)
$p_{4|\left\{1,4\right\}}$	0.063 (0.012)	0.063 (0.012)	0.063 (0.012)	0.063 (0.012)	0.063 (0.012)
$p_{4|\left\{4,1\right\}}$	0.437 (0.026)	0.437 (0.026)	0.437 (0.026)	0.437 (0.026)	0.437 (0.026)
$p_{4|\left\{4,4\right\}}$	0.473 (0.043)	0.473 (0.043)	0.473 (0.043)	0.473 (0.043)	0.473 (0.043)
Probability of being childless ${\pi }_{\{\mathrm{G}2,\mathrm{G}1\}}$		Binary Logit from Mixture NB			Binary Logit
${\pi }_{\left\{1,1\right\}}$		0.084 (0.138)			0.090 (0.069)
${\pi }_{\left\{1,4\right\}}$		0.149 (0.266)			0.105 (0.101)
${\pi }_{\left\{4,1\right\}}$		0.098 (0.161)			0.135 (0.077)
${\pi }_{\left\{4,4\right\}}$		0.171 (0.206)			0.156 (0.083)
The joint demographic and mobility effect $f_{\left\{4,4\right\}}{p}_{4|\left\{4,4\right\}}-f_{\left\{1,1\right\}}{p}_{4|\left\{1,1\right\}}$	0.387 (0.073)	0.385 (0.611)	0.519 (0.068)	0.409 (0.091)	0.379 (0.070)
Bias (ref. model 4.2)	0.002	--	0.134	0.024	−0.006

Note: The bias equals the difference of the joint effect between the mixture prospective estimate in model 4.2 and the estimate from an alternative model. The predicted probability of mobility is estimated for the mean age group. The predicted childlessness probability is estimated for the age group 60+. Standard errors of the predicted fertility, the mobility probabilities, and the joint demographic and mobility effect are estimated by the delta method using the mean estimates of f and p, and the variance-covariance matrix of these estimates.

^*The mobility estimates from the ordered logit regression are the same across all the models. The prospective and the retrospective data yield the same results.