Table 3. Values (posterior weighted quantiles) for the transmission, exposure history and ascertainment probability parameters inferred fitting to the empirical data.
Numbers inside brackets indicate 95% credible intervals. All values are given to 4 d.p.
| Description | Notation | Median [95% credible interval] |
|---|---|---|
| Transmission parameters | ||
| A(H1N1)pdm09 | βA(H1N1)pdm09 | 0.3913 [0.3900, 0.4041] |
| A(H3N2) | βA(H3N2) | 0.3917 [0.3917, 0.4074] |
| B/Victoria | βB/Victoria | 0.3510 [0.3510, 0.3606] |
| B/Yamagata | βB/Yamagata | 0.3653 [0.3653, 0.3759] |
| Exposure history parameters | ||
| Natural infection in prior season | a | 0.7883 [0.7847, 0.7964] |
| Type B influenza cross-reactivity | b | 0.9703 [0.9558, 0.9988] |
| Prior season vaccine efficacy propagation | ξ | 0.0051 [0.0004, 0.0143] |
| Ascertainment probabilities | ||
| 2012/13 | ϵ2012/13 | 0.0017 [0.0015, 0.0018] |
| 2013/14 | ϵ2013/14 | 0.0009 [0.0009, 0.0012] |
| 2014/15 | ϵ2014/15 | 0.0024 [0.0022, 0.0026] |
| 2015/16 | ϵ2015/16 | 0.0037 [0.0032, 0.0039] |
| 2016/17 | ϵ2016/17 | 0.0014 [0.0012, 0.0015] |
| 2017/18 | ϵ2017/18 | 0.0055 [0.0047, 0.0055] |