Table 3.
Maximum model sensitivity (expressed in percentage) for NPP (net primary productivity, upper table) and SWB (standing woody biomass, lower table) for the three sites considered in the study, across four climate change scenarios (RCP) and including the “no climate change” scenario (Cu) from short, medium, to long periods of simulation, respectively
| Period and parameter | Hyytiälä | Bílý Kříž | Sorø | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cu | RCP 2.6 | RCP 4.5 | RCP 6.0 | RCP 8.5 | Cu | RCP 2.6 | RCP 4.5 | RCP 6.0 | RCP 8.5 | Cu | RCP 2.6 | RCP 4.5 | RCP 6.0 | RCP 8.5 | |
| NPP | |||||||||||||||
| Short | |||||||||||||||
| CN_LIVEWOOD | 5.1 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 5.9 | |||||
| K | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | ||||||||||
| LIVE_TOTAL_WOOD | 6.0 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5.8 | ||||||
| LIVE_WOOD_TURNOVER | 5.9 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 5.2 | ||||||||||
| SAP_A | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | |||||
| SAP_B | 32.9 | 32.9 | 32.9 | 32.9 | 32.9 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 30.7 | 30.7 | 30.7 | 30.7 | 30.7 |
| SAP_LEAF | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | |||||
| STEM_B | 23.2 | 23.2 | 23.2 | 23.2 | 23.2 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 37.0 | 37.0 | 37.0 | 37.0 | 37.0 |
| Medium | |||||||||||||||
| CN_LIVEWOOD | 6.6 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 7.8 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 8.3 | |||||
| LIVE_TOTAL_WOOD | 6.5 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 7.5 | |||||
| LIVE_WOOD_TURNOVER | 5.2 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 11.1 | 12.1 | 11.0 |
| MAXAGE | 9.4 | 11.5 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 9.7 | ||||||||||
| SAP_B | 24.2 | 23.6 | 21.7 | 22.7 | 22.3 | ||||||||||
| STEM_B | 15.0 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 13.7 | 31.8 | 31.5 | 28.4 | 30.3 | 29.9 | |||||
| Long | |||||||||||||||
| CN_LIVEWOOD | 5.2 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 7.8 | ||
| LIVE_TOTAL_WOOD | 5.2 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | ||
| LIVE_WOOD_TURNOVER | 7.0 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 10.2 | 10.8 | 16.8 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 14.0 |
| MAXAGE | 5.6 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 12.4 | 11.7 | 12.5 | |
| SAP_B | 18.0 | 17.1 | 16.2 | 16.5 | 15.9 | ||||||||||
| STEM_B | 11.0 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 25.1 | 23.0 | 22.8 | 22.7 | 22.0 | |||||
| T_MAX | 8.6 | 5.9 | |||||||||||||
| All | |||||||||||||||
| CN_LIVEWOOD | 5.2 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 8.3 | ||
| K | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | ||||||||||
| LIVE_TOTAL_WOOD | 5.2 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 8.0 | ||
| LIVE_WOOD_TURNOVER | 7.0 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 10.2 | 10.8 | 16.8 | 10.7 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 14.0 |
| MAXAGE | 5.6 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 12.4 | 11.7 | 12.5 | |
| SAP_A | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | |||||
| SAP_B | 32.9 | 32.9 | 32.9 | 32.9 | 32.9 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 30.7 | 30.7 | 30.7 | 30.7 | 30.7 |
| SAP_LEAF | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | |||||
| STEM_B | 23.2 | 23.2 | 23.2 | 23.2 | 23.2 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 37.0 | 37.0 | 37.0 | 37.0 | 37.0 |
| T_MAX | 8.6 | 5.9 | |||||||||||||
| Standing woody biomass | |||||||||||||||
| Short | |||||||||||||||
| K | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||
| SAP_B | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 21.7 | 21.4 | 21.1 | 21.7 | 21.4 |
| STEM_A | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| STEM_B | 67.8 | 67.8 | 67.8 | 67.8 | 67.8 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 90.6 | 90.6 | 90.6 | 90.6 | 90.6 |
| Medium | |||||||||||||||
| CN_LIVEWOOD | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.1 | ||||||
| LIVE_TOTAL_WOOD | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 6.4 | ||||||
| LIVE_WOOD_TURNOVER | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.9 | ||||||||||
| MAXAGE | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 7.3 | ||||||||||
| SAP_B | 24.5 | 23.8 | 24.1 | 24.2 | 23.7 | ||||||||||
| STEM_B | 9.5 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 8.8 | ||||||||||
| Long | |||||||||||||||
| CN_LIVEWOOD | 6.1 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.4 | |||||
| LIVE_TOTAL_WOOD | 6.0 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 7.7 | |||||
| LIVE_WOOD_TURNOVER | 5.4 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 10.6 | 10.3 | 10.9 |
| MAXAGE | 9.8 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 8.7 |
| SAP_B | 24.8 | 23.9 | 24.1 | 24.2 | 23.7 | ||||||||||
| SLA_AVG1 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 6.2 | |||||||||
| STEM_B | 12.3 | 12.4 | 12.2 | 12.1 | 11.9 | ||||||||||
| All | |||||||||||||||
| CN_LIVEWOOD | 6.1 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.4 | |||||
| K | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||
| LIVE_TOTAL_WOOD | 6.0 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 7.7 | |||||
| LIVE_WOOD_TURNOVER | 5.4 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 10.6 | 10.3 | 10.9 |
| MAXAGE | 9.8 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 8.7 |
| SAP_B | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 24.8 | 23.9 | 24.1 | 24.2 | 23.7 |
| SLA_AVG1 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 6.2 | |||||||||
| STEM_A | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| STEM_B | 67.8 | 67.8 | 67.8 | 67.8 | 67.8 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 90.6 | 90.6 | 90.6 | 90.6 | 90.6 |
“All” is the average model sensitivity over all simulation periods. An arbitrary threshold of 5% was used as reference level. Within each time period and across sites, values in boldface type represent the most sensitive model parameters. See also Fig. S1 in supplementary material for the sensitivity distribution across scenarios of climate change.