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. 2019 Mar 20;39(8):1796–1811. doi: 10.1111/risa.13310

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© 2019 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.

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Predicted (posterior mean) versus observed number of cases for salmonella subtypes. Cases summed over years $(\sum_{t = 1}^{T} C_{s, t})$ are represented by dots, and 95% credible intervals for the predicted cases $(\sum_{i = 1}^{I} \sum_{t = 1}^{T} λ_{i, s, t}^{*})$ are shown in the vertical gray lines.