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. 2019 Mar 20;39(8):1796–1811. doi: 10.1111/risa.13310

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© 2019 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.

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The posterior mean and 95% credible interval for the subtype‐specific parameters q_s obtained with the modular Bayesian model but without outbreak‐related cases (each outbreak was included in the data set as an index case only). The salmonella subtypes in the model were: (1) Diarizoane, (2) Aarhus, (3) Agona, (4) Albany, (5) Altona, (6) Anatum, (7) Bardo, (8) Benfica, (9) Berta, (10) Bovismorbificans, (11) Brandenburg, (12) Bredeney, (13) Cerro, (14) Coeln, (15) Corvallis, (16) Derby, (17) Dublin, (18) Eastbourne, (19) Enteritidis 1, (20) Enteritidis 1b, (21) Enteritidis 3, (22) Enteritidis 4, (23) Enteritidis 6, (24) Enteritidis 6b, (25) Enteritidis 7, (26) Enteritidis 8, (27) Enteritidis 21, (28) Enteritidis 33, (29) Enteritidis NST, (30) Goldcoast, (31) Hadar, (32) Haifa, (33) Heidelberg, (34) Houston, (35) Indiana, (36) Infantis, (37) Javiana, (38) Kentucky, (39) Kisarawe, (40) Konstanz, (41) Livingstone, (42) London, (43) Mbandaka, (44) Minnesota, (45) Montevideo, (46) Muenchen, (47) Newport, (48) Panama, (49) Paratyphi B, (50) Paratyphi B var. Java, (51) Rissen, (52) Saintpaul, (53) Schwarzengrund, (54) Stanley, (55) Stockholm, (56) Tennessee, (57) Typhimurium 1, (58) Typhimurium 2, (59) Typhimurium 12, (60) Typhimurium 40, (61) Typhimurium 41, (62) Typhimurium 46, (63) Typhimurium 104, (64) Typhimurium 104b, (65) Typhimurium 120, (66) Typhimurium 126, (67) Typhimurium 135, (68) Typhimurium 193, (69) Typhimurium 195, (70) Typhimurium 208, (71) Typhimurium NST, (72) Typhimurium NT, (73) Typhimurium U277, (74) Typhimurium U302, (75) Typhimurium U311, (76) Uganda, (77) Virchow, (78) Worthington, (79) 1,4,5,12:i 22, (80) 1,4,5,12:i 99, (81) 1,4,5,12:i 104b, (82) 1,4,5,12:i 120, (83) 1,4,5,12:i 193, (84) 1,4,5,12:i 195, (85) 1,4,5,12:i NT, (86) 1,4,5,12:i U302.