Table 4.
Observed vs. predicted risks in the MEGA study vs. the development studiesa
| Predicted | Observedb | Observedc | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cumulative recurrence risk at 12 months (95% CI) | |||
| Vienna model | |||
| Quintile | |||
| 1 | 3.0 (1.3‐3.7) | 1.6 (0.4‐6.3) | 1.1 (0.2‐7.9) |
| 2 | 4.3 (3.7‐4.9) | 5.0 (2.2‐10.9) | 5.0 (1.9‐12.8) |
| 3 | 5.4 (4.9‐6.0) | 3.4 (1.3‐8.8) | 5.2 (2.0‐13.3) |
| 4 | 6.6 (6.0‐7.5) | 5.1 (2.3‐11.0) | 4.9 (1.9‐12.5) |
| 5 | 9.5 (7.5‐18.5) | 7.0 (3.6‐13.5) | 6.7 (2.8‐15.1) |
| Cumulative recurrence risk at 24 months (95% CI) | |||
| DASH score | |||
| ≤−1 | 2.6 (0.3‐4.9) | 2.3 (1.1‐4.8) | NA |
| 0 | 5.4 (3.1‐9.3) | 7.6 (4.4‐13.0) | 6.7 (2.6‐17.0) |
| 1 | 8.7 (6.3‐12.0) | 6.6 (4.8‐9.1) | 6.1 (3.2‐11.3) |
| 2 | 12.8 (9.9‐16.4) | 8.2 (5.5‐12.1) | 8.9 (4.8‐14.9) |
| 3 | 20.5 (16.4‐25.5) | 16.6 (13.6‐20.1) | 10.5 (6.4‐17.2) |
| 4 | 33.6 (23.3‐46.8) | 19.4 (14.7‐25.4) | 10.8 (2.8‐36.9) |
NA denotes not available.
a
For the Vienna prediction model, numbers were obtained from the article of Marcucci et al.,14 since predicted risks per quintile were not available in the development study; for DASH, numbers were obtained from the validation study of DASH.15
b
Definition of unprovoked venous thrombosis in development datasets.
c
Our definition of unprovoked venous thrombosis.