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Performance of burned area models on the test set in descending order
| Model | Holdout log likelihood |
|---|---|
| Lognormal | −26,341 (43) |
| Generalized Pareto | −26,377 (45) |
| Tapered Pareto | −26,386 (49) |
| Weibull | −27,592 (236) |
| Gamma | −30,675 (993) |
Posterior means are provided with standard deviations in parentheses.
