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Predicted probability of high impact based on the presence of a North American congener insect on the same conifer species. Model comparisons found that the risk of a non‐native conifer specialist producing high impacts is higher when there is no native (North American) congener that feeds on the shared host [P(high impact) = 0.102 vs. 0.013]. This model received ~ 89% of the data support (Table 4). Of the 203 insect–tree pairs, 75 had a congener present on the tree and 128 did not
