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. 2019 Sep 21;394(10203):1041–1054. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)31674-5

Table 2.

Absolute incidence of cardiovascular disease outcomes at specific timepoints after cancer diagnosis compared with expected incidence, by age group

18–59 years
60–79 years
≥80 years
Observed incidence Expected incidence Excess (95% CI) Observed incidence Expected incidence Excess (95% CI) Observed incidence Expected incidence Excess (95% CI)
Arrhythmia incidence at 5 years
Colorectal (C18–20) 1·2 1·0 0·2 (−0·0 to 0·5) 2·5 2·3 0·2 (−0·0 to 0·5) 4·2 4·6 −0·4 (−1·1 to 0·3)
Lung (C34) 2·7 1·0 1·7 (0·8 to 2·6) 3·9 2·5 1·4 (0·6 to 2·2) 6·1 5·4 0·7 (−1·4 to 2·7)
Melanoma (C43) 1·0 0·8 0·1 (−0·1 to 0·3) 2·1 2·0 0·1 (−0·3 to 0·4) 3·9 4·0 −0·2 (−1·2 to 0·8)
Breast (C50) 1·1 1·0 0·1 (−0·0 to 0·2) 1·9 1·8 0·1 (−0·1 to 0·2) 3·8 3·7 0·1 (−0·4 to 0·6)
Uterus (C54–55) 1·4 1·2 0·2 (−0·2 to 0·6) 2·0 2·1 −0·0 (−0·5 to 0·4) 5·1 4·1 1·0 (−0·9 to 2·9)
Prostate (C61) 1·1 1·1 −0·0 (−0·3 to 0·2) 2·6 2·5 0·1 (−0·1 to 0·3) 5·5 5·0 0·5 (−0·2 to 1·1)
Bladder (C67) 1·1 1·1 0·0 (−0·3 to 0·4) 2·8 2·5 0·3 (−0·1 to 0·7) 5·1 4·9 0·3 (−0·7 to 1·2)
NHL (C82–85) 1·3 0·8 0·5 (0·1 to 0·9) 2·9 2·1 0·8 (0·2 to 1·4) 5·7 4·4 1·4 (−0·3 to 3·0)
Leukaemia (C91–95) 1·1 1·0 0·2 (−0·2 to 0·6) 2·6 2·4 0·2 (−0·4 to 0·8) 3·9 5·0 −1·1 (−2·4 to 0·2)
Coronary artery disease incidence at 5 years
Colorectal (C18–20) 0·7 0·6 0·1 (−0·1 to 0·2) 1·3 1·4 −0·2 (−0·4 to 0·0) 2·2 2·3 −0·1 (−0·5 to 0·4)
Lung (C34) 1·3 0·7 0·6 (0·0 to 1·2) 2·0 1·7 0·3 (−0·3 to 0·9) 2·9 2·7 0·2 (−1·2 to 1·5)
Melanoma (C43) 0·3 0·3 0·0 (−0·1 to 0·1) 1·2 0·9 0·3 (0·0 to 0·6) 2·1 1·9 0·2 (−0·6 to 1·0)
Breast (C50) 0·3 0·3 −0·0 (−0·1 to 0·0) 0·8 0·9 −0·1 (−0·2 to 0·0) 1·3 1·7 −0·4 (−0·7 to −0·1)
Uterus (C54–55) 0·4 0·4 −0·0 (−0·3 to 0·2) 0·7 1·0 −0·4 (−0·6 to −0·1) 2·3 1·9 0·4 (−0·8 to 1·6)
Prostate (C61) 0·9 1·0 −0·1 (−0·4 to 0·1) 1·8 1·8 0·1 (−0·1 to 0·2) 2·6 2·7 −0·1 (−0·5 to 0·3)
Bladder (C67) 1·1 0·7 0·4 (0·1 to 0·7) 2·0 1·7 0·4 (0·0 to 0·7) 2·7 2·6 0·2 (−0·5 to 0·8)
NHL (C82–85) 0·8 0·4 0·3 (0·1 to 0·6) 1·8 1·3 0·5 (0·1 to 1·0) 2·2 2·0 0·2 (−0·7 to 1·2)
Leukaemia (C91–95) 0·9 0·6 0·3 (−0·1 to 0·7) 1·8 1·5 0·4 (−0·2 to 0·9) 3·1 2·0 1·1 (−0·1 to 2·2)
Heart failure or cardiomyopathy incidence at 5 years
Colorectal (C18–20) 0·3 0·3 0·0 (−0·1 to 0·1) 1·0 1·1 −0·0 (−0·2 to 0·1) 2·6 3·0 −0·4 (−0·9 to 0·1)
Lung (C34) 1·1 0·3 0·8 (0·3 to 1·3) 2·2 1·3 0·8 (0·3 to 1·4) 4·1 4·1 0·1 (−1·5 to 1·6)
Melanoma (C43) 0·1 0·1 −0·0 (−0·1 to 0·0) 0·6 0·7 −0·1 (−0·3 to 0·1) 2·3 2·5 −0·2 (−0·9 to 0·5)
Breast (C50) 0·2 0·1 0·1 (0·1 to 0·2) 0·7 0·7 0·1 (−0·0 to 0·2) 2·1 2·3 −0·1 (−0·5 to 0·2)
Uterus (C54–55) 0·2 0·2 −0·0 (−0·1 to 0·1) 0·7 0·8 −0·1 (−0·3 to 0·2) 3·3 2·7 0·6 (−0·7 to 1·9)
Prostate (C61) 0·4 0·4 −0·1 (−0·2 to 0·1) 1·4 1·4 0·0 (−0·1 to 0·2) 4·0 3·6 0·3 (−0·2 to 0·8)
Bladder (C67) 0·4 0·3 0·1 (−0·1 to 0·3) 1·7 1·5 0·3 (0·0 to 0·5) 4·2 3·9 0·3 (−0·5 to 1·1)
NHL (C82–85) 0·6 0·2 0·4 (0·2 to 0·6) 1·8 0·9 1·0 (0·6 to 1·3) 4·6 2·5 2·1 (0·8 to 3·3)
Leukaemia (C91–95) 0·5 0·2 0·3 (0·0 to 0·5) 1·6 1·1 0·5 (0·1 to 0·9) 3·8 3·5 0·4 (−0·8 to 1·5)
Stroke incidence at 5 years
Colorectal (C18–20) 0·4 0·3 0·1 (−0·0 to 0·2) 1·1 1·1 −0·0 (−0·2 to 0·1) 2·1 2·5 −0·4 (−0·8 to 0·0)
Lung (C34) 1·1 0·3 0·8 (0·4 to 1·3) 1·6 1·3 0·4 (−0·0 to 0·8) 2·6 2·6 0·0 (−1·0 to 1·1)
Melanoma (C43) 0·3 0·2 0·1 (−0·0 to 0·2) 0·8 0·8 −0·0 (−0·2 to 0·2) 1·9 2·1 −0·2 (−0·9 to 0·5)
Breast (C50) 0·2 0·2 0·0 (−0·0 to 0·1) 0·8 0·7 0·0 (−0·1 to 0·1) 2·0 2·1 −0·1 (−0·5 to 0·2)
Uterus (C54–55) 0·2 0·2 −0·0 (−0·2 to 0·1) 0·7 0·8 −0·0 (−0·3 to 0·2) 1·8 1·7 0·1 (−0·8 to 1·0)
Prostate (C61) 0·6 0·5 0·1 (−0·0 to 0·3) 1·3 1·2 0·0 (−0·1 to 0·2) 2·6 2·5 0·1 (−0·3 to 0·5)
Bladder (C67) 0·4 0·3 0·1 (−0·1 to 0·3) 1·4 1·3 0·1 (−0·2 to 0·3) 3·0 2·8 0·2 (−0·5 to 0·8)
NHL (C82–85) 0·4 0·2 0·2 (0·0 to 0·4) 1·2 1·0 0·2 (−0·1 to 0·6) 2·9 2·4 0·5 (−0·5 to 1·6)
Leukaemia (C91–95) 0·6 0·3 0·3 (0·1 to 0·6) 1·2 0·9 0·3 (−0·1 to 0·6) 2·0 2·3 −0·3 (−1·1 to 0·5)
Venous thromboembolism incidence at 1 year
Colorectal (C18–20) 1·5 0·1 1·4 (0·9 to 1·8) 2·0 0·3 1·7 (1·2 to 2·1) 2·0 0·6 1·4 (0·8 to 1·9)
Lung (C34) 4·5 0·2 4·3 (2·9 to 5·8) 3·8 0·5 3·3 (2·4 to 4·2) 3·1 0·8 2·3 (0·9 to 3·7)
Melanoma (C43) 0·3 0·1 0·3 (0·1 to 0·4) 0·8 0·2 0·6 (0·2 to 1·0) 1·0 0·4 0·5 (−0·1 to 1·2)
Breast (C50) 0·7 0·1 0·6 (0·5 to 0·8) 1·1 0·3 0·9 (0·7 to 1·1) 1·7 0·5 1·2 (0·7 to 1·6)
Uterus (C54–55) 1·3 0·2 1·2 (0·4 to 2·0) 2·3 0·3 1·9 (0·8 to 3·1) 3·0 0·8 2·3 (0·3 to 4·2)
Prostate (C61) 0·4 0·2 0·2 (0·1 to 0·4) 0·9 0·3 0·5 (0·3 to 0·8) 1·3 0·5 0·8 (0·3 to 1·2)
Bladder (C67) 1·2 0·1 1·1 (0·5 to 1·7) 1·9 0·3 1·6 (0·9 to 2·4) 1·7 0·5 1·2 (0·5 to 1·9)
NHL (C82–85) 0·7 0·1 0·6 (0·0 to 1·2) 1·4 0·3 1·1 (0·0 to 2·1) 1·7 0·7 1·0 (−0·4 to 2·4)
Leukaemia (C91–95) 0·4 0·1 0·3 (−0·0 to 0·6) 0·8 0·4 0·4 (−0·2 to 0·9) 0·8 0·7 0·2 (−0·6 to 0·9)
Venous thromboembolism incidence at 5 years
Colorectal (C18–20) 0·8 0·2 0·6 (0·4 to 0·7) 1·0 0·5 0·5 (0·3 to 0·6) 1·0 1·0 0·0 (−0·2 to 0·3)
Lung (C34) 1·7 0·2 1·5 (0·8 to 2·2) 1·4 0·6 0·9 (0·4 to 1·4) 1·2 0·9 0·2 (−0·4 to 0·9)
Melanoma (C43) 0·3 0·1 0·1 (0·0 to 0·2) 0·6 0·5 0·2 (−0·0 to 0·4) 0·8 0·9 −0·2 (−0·6 to 0·2)
Breast (C50) 0·5 0·2 0·4 (0·3 to 0·4) 0·8 0·4 0·4 (0·3 to 0·5) 1·2 0·8 0·4 (0·1 to 0·6)
Uterus (C54–55) 0·5 0·2 0·3 (0·1 to 0·5) 0·9 0·5 0·4 (0·1 to 0·7) 1·2 1·0 0·1 (−0·6 to 0·8)
Prostate (C61) 0·4 0·2 0·2 (0·0 to 0·3) 0·9 0·5 0·4 (0·2 to 0·5) 1·3 0·8 0·5 (0·2 to 0·8)
Bladder (C67) 0·6 0·2 0·3 (0·1 to 0·5) 0·9 0·5 0·3 (0·2 to 0·5) 0·8 0·9 −0·1 (−0·4 to 0·2)
NHL (C82–85) 0·5 0·2 0·3 (0·1 to 0·5) 0·9 0·5 0·4 (0·1 to 0·7) 1·1 1·0 0·0 (−0·6 to 0·6)
Leukaemia (C91–95) 0·7 0·2 0·5 (0·1 to 0·8) 1·2 0·6 0·6 (0·2 to 1·0) 1·3 1·0 0·3 (−0·3 to 1·0)

Data are absolute incidence (from time of cancer diagnosis) of cardiovascular disease outcomes per 100 person-years (or equivalently risk [%] per year). Cancer codes from the International Classification of Diseases, version 10. Incidence in cancer survivors and expected incidence calculated by fitting flexible parametric survival models with exposure (cancer survivor vs control), covariates, and interaction between exposure and time since diagnosis and predicting incidence for exposed or unexposed at the mean value of covariates in cancer survivors. NHL=non-Hodgkin lymphoma.