Table 1.
Comparison of different predictive scoring models*.
| Name | Study type | Study population | Index event | Outcome | Validation studies | Clinical utility and potential limitations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stroke Prognosis Instrument (SPI-I) | Retrospective cohort (3) | 142 patients, identified on a carotid ultrasound roster | First-time carotid TIA or minor stroke | Stroke or death within 2 years | 2/2 | Limited. Overestimates in low-risk patients; followed by SPI-II |
| SPI-II | Prospective cohort (4) | 525 patients, WEST cohort | First-time carotid territory TIA or non-disabling stroke | Stroke or death within 2 years | 4/4 | Limited for early prediction. Overestimates in low-risk patients; carotid territory TIA or minor stroke only, Overall limited performance |
| Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) | Prospective cohort (5) | 6,431 patients, ischemic stroke subgroup of CAPRIE trial | Ischemic stroke | Recurrent stroke within 1 year | 7/9 | Limited for early prediction. Perform better for combined recurrent stroke and death, Overall limited performance |
| Recurrence Risk Estimator at 90 days (RRE-90) | Retrospective cohort (6) | 1,458 patients, consecutive patients with ischemic stroke admitted to a single center | Ischemic stroke | Recurrent stroke within 90-days | 4/4 | Web-based prognostic tool. Limited use as it requires both accurate subtyping and neuroradiological assessment |
| Dutch TIA | Prospective cohort (7) | 997 patients with TIA and 2,130 patients with minor stroke | TIA or minor stroke | Fatal or non-fatal stroke and for MI, stroke, or vascular death at 2 years | 0/2 | Overestimate the risk, Lacking validation |
| LiLAC | Prospective cohort (8) | 2,473 participants of the Dutch TIA Trial | TIA or minor stroke | All-cause mortality and the composite event of death from all vascular causes, non-fatal stroke, and non-fatal MI at 10 years | 0/1 | Lacking validation |
| Hankey Score | Prospective cohort (9) | 469 patients | TIA | Stroke; coronary event; and stroke, MI or vascular death within 5 years | 3/4 | Poor performance in validation studies involves complex equations limiting its clinical utility |
| California Risk Score | Retrospective cohort (10) | 1,707 patients | TIA | Recurrent stroke at 90 days | 2/2 | Followed by ABCD2 |
| ABCD | Prospective (population-based) cohort (11) | 209 Patients | Probable or definite TIA | Stroke within 7 days | 9/12 | Followed by ABCD2 |
| ABCD2 | Derived from California risk score and ABCD and validated on the derivation cohort of these scores (12) | 1,707 and 209 patients | TIA | Stroke at 2, 7, and 90 days | 20/32 | Most widely used for prediction of short-term risk of stroke, Questionable predictive value might underestimate the risk |
*
Predictive scoring models derived from ABCD/ABCD2 are described in Table 5.