Table 2.

Multi-metabolite score for the risk of type 2 diabetes during the 15 year follow-up, assessed for 5271 individuals aged 31 years at blood sampling

	Incident type 2 diabetes casesa, n (%)	OR (95% CI)
		Model 1b	Model 2c
Score quintile
Lower fifth	6 (0.6)	Reference	Reference
20–40%	14 (1.3)	2.17 (0.83, 5.67)	1.95 (0.74, 5.16)
40–60%	36 (3.4)	4.09 (2.08, 12.0)	3.93 (1.59, 9.70)
60–80%	47 (4.5)	5.92 (2.47, 14.2)	4.11 (1.63, 10.3)
Upper fifth	96 (9.1)	10.1 (4.20, 24.1)	5.80 (2.22, 15.1)
Per 1 SD increment		1.76 (1.48, 2.09)d	1.42 (1.14, 1.76)e

The multi-metabolite score was calculated as the weighted sum of concentrations of three circulating metabolites: phenylalanine (weight 0.320), non-esterified cholesterol in large HDL (weight −0.474) and ratio of cholesteryl esters to total lipids in large VLDL (weight −0.321). The β-coefficients used as weights for the biomarkers score were derived by meta-analysis of three derivation cohorts

^aThe lower fifth quantile contains 1055 individuals and the other quantiles 1054 individuals

^bWith age, sex, BMI and fasting glucose as covariates

^cModel 1 + triacylglycerol, HDL-cholesterol and HOMA-IR as additional covariates

^dp = 2× 10⁻¹⁰

^ep = 0.002