Table 3-.

Predictive Value of the Scoring System Obtained from the Validation Group^*

	Low cutoff point (<2.6)	Indeterminate (2.6–4.6)	High cutoff point (>4.6)	Total
Total	6434	21108	4267	31809**
No Incident PVT	6011	1895	4267	29213
Incident PVT	432	1895	278	2596
Sensitivity	85%		9%
Specificity	36%		100%
Positive predictive value	16%		85%
Negative predictive value	94%		88%
Likelihood ratio (+)	1.3		38.8
Likelihood ratio (−)	0.4		0.9
Interpretation	PVT will not develop over next 12 months (94% certainty)		PVT will develop over next 12 months (85% certainty)

^*Incident PVT was 8.2% in the validation group.

^**PVT-RI unable to be calculated for eight recipients due to missing data