Table 2. Proportion of Eyes From Patients in the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study With Forecasts of MD Within 0.5, 1.0, and 2.5 dB and Beyond 2.5 dB of the Actual Value at 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 Months for Each of the 5 Forecasting Models.
| Months Forecast Ahead and Amount of Error in MD Forecast, dB | No. of Eyes (%) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KF-OHTN | KF-HTGa,b | PM | LR1a,b | LR2a,b | |
| 12c | |||||
| 0.5 | 1067 (42.1) | 942 (37.1) | 1066 (42.0) | 805 (31.7) | 869 (34.3) |
| 1.0 | 1794 (70.7) | 1706 (67.2) | 1789 (70.5) | 1419 (55.9) | 1527 (60.2) |
| 2.5 | 2429 (95.7) | 2413 (95.1) | 2439 (96.1) | 2310 (91.1) | 2340 (92.2) |
| >2.5 | 108 (4.3) | 124 (4.9) | 98 (3.9) | 227 (8.9) | 197 (7.8) |
| 24 | |||||
| 0.5 | 939 (38.8) | 890 (36.8) | 940 (38.9) | 530 (21.9) | 555 (23.0) |
| 1.0 | 1602 (66.3) | 1581 (65.4) | 1624 (67.2) | 1057 (43.7) | 1083 (44.8) |
| 2.5 | 2274 (94.0) | 2280 (94.3) | 2301 (95.2) | 1980 (81.9) | 2011 (83.2) |
| >2.5 | 144 (6.0) | 138 (5.7) | 117 (4.8) | 438 (18.1) | 407 (16.8) |
| 36 | |||||
| 0.5 | 818 (35.3) | 784 (33.8) | 886 (38.2) | 386 (16.7) | 414 (17.9) |
| 1.0 | 1489 (64.3) | 1424 (61.5) | 1516 (65.4) | 791 (34.1) | 809 (34.9) |
| 2.5 | 2175 (93.9) | 2171 (93.7) | 2181 (94.1) | 1623 (70.0) | 1654 (71.4) |
| >2.5 | 142 (6.1) | 146 (6.3) | 136 (5.9) | 694 (30.0) | 663 (28.6) |
| 48 | |||||
| 0.5 | 803 (35.7) | 704 (31.3) | 830 (36.9) | 318 (14.1) | 336 (14.9) |
| 1.0 | 1424 (63.3) | 1313 (58.4) | 1433 (63.7) | 599 (26.6) | 606 (26.9) |
| 2.5 | 2114 (94.0) | 2100 (93.4) | 2114 (94.0) | 1389 (61.8) | 1411 (62.7) |
| >2.5 | 135 (6.0) | 149 (6.6) | 135 (6.0) | 860 (38.2) | 838 (37.3) |
| 60d | |||||
| 0.5 | 696 (32.8) | 578 (27.2) | 728 (34.3) | 242 (11.4) | 246 (11.6) |
| 1.0 | 1295 (61.0) | 1085 (51.1) | 1309 (61.6) | 484 (22.8) | 496 (23.4) |
| 2.5 | 1980 (93.2) | 1911 (90.0) | 1980 (93.2) | 1173 (55.2) | 1216 (57.3) |
| >2.5 | 144 (6.8) | 213 (10.0) | 144 (6.8) | 951 (44.8) | 908 (42.7) |
Abbreviations: KF-HTG, Kalman filter built using a sample of patients with high-tension glaucoma; KF-OHTN, KF built using a sample of patients with ocular hypertension from the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study; LR, linear regression model; MD, mean deviation; PM, personalized mean model.
This model had a significantly different distribution of prediction errors compared with the KF-OHTN model when estimating MD 12 months into the future at a significance level of P = .01 based on the Bhapkar test for equality of marginal distributions.13
This model had a significantly different distribution of prediction errors compared with the KF-OHTN model when estimating MD 60 months into the future at a significance level of P = .01 based on the Bhapkar test for equality of marginal distributions.
Of 2806 eyes from patients in the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study, 2537 (90.4%) underwent enough measurements for this analysis.
Of 2806 eyes from patients in the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study, 2124 (75.7%) underwent enough measurements for this analysis.