Table 3. Comparison of the RMSE of the 5 Models at Forecasting MD, PSD, and IOP for All Patients in the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study at 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 Months.

Months Ahead by Metric	RMSE (% Improvement)a,b
	KF-OHTNc	KF-HTG	PM	LR1	LR2
MD
12	1.44 (18.8)	1.48 (16.4)	1.52 (14.3)	1.77	1.76 (0.7)
24	1.64 (32.2)	1.64 (32.3)	1.70 (29.7)	2.42	2.43 (–0.3)
36	1.59 (47.1)	1.60 (46.7)	1.67 (44.5)	3.00	3.01 (–0.4)
48	1.61 (55.5)	1.64 (54.6)	1.76 (51.4)	3.62	3.63 (–0.4)
60	1.72 (59.7)	1.85 (56.7)	1.89 (55.8)	4.27	4.28 (–0.4)
PSD
12	0.73 (14.7)	0.71 (17.0)	0.68 (19.6)	0.85	0.86 (–1.5)
24	0.80 (28.3)	0.81 (28.0)	0.76 (32.2)	1.12	1.13 (–0.7)
36	0.84 (39.3)	0.97 (29.8)	0.81 (41.2)	1.38	1.38 (0.2)
48	0.93 (45.0)	1.19 (29.7)	0.90 (46.5)	1.69	1.69 (0.1)
60	1.04 (48.5)	1.48 (26.4)	1.00 (50.2)	2.01	2.00 (0.6)
IOP
12	2.33 (26.6)	2.67 (15.8)	2.48 (21.7)	3.17	3.15 (0.5)
24	2.67 (40.4)	2.83 (36.7)	2.72 (39.2)	4.47	4.45 (0.6)
36	3.02 (46.7)	2.99 (47.1)	3.02 (46.7)	5.66	5.60 (1.0)
48	3.23 (53.0)	3.36 (51.1)	3.54 (48.5)	6.88	6.83 (0.8)
60	3.42 (58.5)	4.08 (50.6)	4.56 (44.8)	8.25	8.14 (1.4)

Abbreviations: IOP, intraocular pressure; KF-OHTN, Kalman filter built using a sample of patients with ocular hypertension from the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study; KF-HTG, KF built using a sample of patients with high-tension glaucoma; LR, linear regression model; MD, mean deviation; PM, personalized mean model; PSD, pattern standard deviation; RMSE, root-mean-square error.

^aThe RMSE values closer to 0 indicate estimations closer to the actual values obtained in the trial.

^bPercentage improvement is measured with respect to the LR1 model and computed as (RMSE_LR1 − RMSE_M)/(RMSE_LR1) × 100, where RMSE_M is the RMSE belonging to the KF-OHTN, KF-HTG, PM, or LR2 model. Positive percentage improvement values indicate improved performance compared with the LR1 model.

^cThe RMSE was estimated using leave-1-out cross-validation.