Fig 5. The predicted 7-day counts of cold-related manatee carcasses reported in the central-west region using water temperature based on the short-term temperature effect (14-day sum, lagged by 7 days; x-axis) by winter from the top-ranked model.

Each line represents a different winter, and the circles represent the observed numbers of cold-related carcasses reported over 7 days color-coded by winter. Note that the prediction lines for winters 2009–2010 and 2010–2011 are nearly identical.