Table 2.
Model parameters
| Parameter | India | Indonesia | China | Philippines | Pakistan | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic | ||||||
| Simulated population size | 20,000 | ” | ” | ” | ” | |
| Average household size | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 6.8 | [27] |
| Number of schools (/100,000 population) | 115 | 96 | 37 | 57 | 157 | [28–32] |
| Average number of potential contacts at work* | 10–30 | ” | ” | ” | ” | Assumption |
| Proportion of the adult population engaged in regular work outside of the household (%) | 53.8 | 66.3 | 68.9 | 62.3 | 54.4 | [33] |
| Proportion contacts which are of high intensity by location, with locations listed as households / schools / workplaces / other locations (%) | 46 / 30 / 20 / 10 | ” | ” | ” | ” | [10] |
| Natural history of TB | ||||||
| Proportion of active TB cases sm+a / sm−b / extra-pc (%) | 50 / 25 / 25 | 62 / 19 / 19 | 52 / 24 / 24 | 60 / 20 / 20 | 44 / 28 / 28 | [34, 35] |
| Rate of spontaneous clearance (sm+ / closed TBd years−1)* | 0.18–0.29 / 0.09–0.24 | ” | ” | ” | ” | [18] |
| Rate of TB-specific mortality (sm+ / closed TB years−1)* | 0.33–0.45 / 0.016–0.036 | ” | ” | ” | ” | [18] |
| Crude probability of TB transmission during a contact (×10−4)* | 38.5 (30.2–44.9) | 39.8 (34.1–45.2) | 36.1 (32.4–40.2) | 39.1 (32.3–47.4) | 38.3 (30.8–44.3) | Calibrated |
| Relative probability of transmission per contact if low-intensity contacte | 0.5 | ” | ” | ” | ” | Assumption, tested in sensitivity analysis |
| Programmatic parameters | ||||||
| BCG vaccine coverage | Time-variant | Time-variant | Time-variant | Time-variant | Time-variant | [36] Additional file 1: Figure S9 |
| Case detection rate | Time-variant | Time-variant | Time-variant | Time-variant | Time-variant | [37] Additional file 1: Figure S9 |
| Time from detection to treatment (days)* | 0–14 | ” | ” | ” | ” | [38–41] |
| Treatment success rate | Time-variant | Time-variant | Time-variant | Time-variant | Time-variant | [35] Additional file 1: Figure S9 |
*Parameters included in Latin hypercube sampling; a smear-positive TB; b smear-negative TB; c extrapulmonary TB; d either smear-negative or extrapulmonary TB; e reference: high-intensity contact