Table 2.

Key Model Parameters

	Value	Range	Distribution	Ref
Teriparatide
Efficacy
Hip fracture	0.42	0.10–1.0	Triangular	18
Clinical vertebral fracture	0.30	0.16–0.55	Beta	18
Wrist fracture	0.24	0.02–1.0	Triangular	19
Other osteoporotic fracture	0.50	0.32–0.78	Beta	18
Persistence and adherence (%)
Persistence, 12 months	63.4	±50%a	Triangular	23
Persistence, 24 months	40.8	±50%a	Triangular	23
Adherence, 12 months	54.4	±50%a	Triangular	23
Adherence, 24 months	39.8	±50%a	Triangular	23
Alendronate
Efficacy
Hip fracture	0.45	0.27–0.68	Beta	18
Clinical vertebral fracture	0.50	0.33–0.79	Beta	18
Wrist fracture	0.82	0.25–1.0	Triangular	19
Other osteoporotic fracture	0.78	0.66–0.92	Beta	18
Persistence and adherence (%)
Persistence, 12 months	38.7	±50%a	Triangular	23
Persistence, 24 months	23.7	±50%a	Triangular	23
Adherence, 12 months	31.3	±50%a	Triangular	23
Adherence, 24 months	22.8	±50%a	Triangular	23
Costs (2018 US dollars)
Formal health care sector
Alendronate, annual	205	86–324	Triangular	2
Teriparatide, annual	20,161	4005–22,646b	Triangular	2
Physician visit (CPT code 99213)	74	NA	NA	33
DXA scan (CPT code 77080)	100	49–150	Triangular	33
Treatment costs
Hip fracture	29,986	25,677–42,913	Log‐normal	10
Clinical vertebral fracture	8325	5775–15,975	Log‐normal	10
Wrist fracture	4577	2543–10,674	Log‐normal	10
Other osteoporotic fracture	14,144	10,086–26,314	Log‐normal	10
Non‐health care sector
Annual long‐term care after hip fracture	2577	0–5154	Triangular	10
Unpaid lost productivity caused by hip fracture, age 65–69	1690	±50%a	Triangular	36
Unpaid lost productivity caused by hip fracture, age 70–74	1005	±50%a	Triangular	36
Unpaid lost productivity caused by hip fracture, age 75–80	357	±50%a	Triangular	36
Relative risks of subsequent fractures associated with prior vertebral fracture
Hip fracture	2.3	2.0–2.8	Gamma	39
Clinical vertebral fracture	4.4	3.6–5.4	Gamma	39
Wrist fracture	1.4	1.2–2.7	Gamma	39
Other osteoporotic fracture	1.8	1.7–1.9	Gamma	39

The other model parameters can be found in our earlier publication and its technical appendix.10 CPT = Current Procedural Terminology.

^aSensitivity values 50% lower and 50% higher in relative terms than the base case value, which was based on our own assumptions.

^b$4005 was based on the assumption that 90% took generic/biosimilar product and the price discount for generic/biosimilar product was 95% relative to the brand product. $22,646 was based on the assumption that 60% took a generic/biosimilar product and the price discount for a generic/biosimilar product was 30% relative to the brand product.