1. Components of the systematic review question.

Review question component	Description
Population	Adults with non‐specific low back pain (grouped as acute (< 6 weeks), subacute/chronic (≥ 6 weeks), and mixed duration), in any setting (grouped as worker, healthcare and general population settings)
Prognostic factor/comparator	Individual recovery expectations, measured at an early point in management, with any reference period (grouped as 1 month, 6 months, or none/unclear reference period)
Primary outcomes	Work participation, functional limitations, important recovery, or pain intensity
Time periods	Short (closest to 3 months), medium (closest to 6 months), long follow‐up (closest to 12 months)a, and very long follow‐up (greater than 16 months)

^a12 month follow‐up period prioritised for primary analyses