Table 4.
Simple and adjusted effects of preoperative, postoperative, and chance in serum biomarker levels on long-term survival.
| Biomarker | % Dead |
Simple | Adjustedb | Adjusted + Other Biomarkerc | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR | 95% CI | p-value | HR | 95% CI | p-value | HR | 95% CI | p-value | ||
| Pre-operative (n= 1,526) | ||||||||||
| sST-2 | ||||||||||
| Quartile 1 | 10% | 1.0 (ref) | - | - | 1.0 (ref) | - | - | 1.0 (ref) | - | - |
| Quartile 2-3 | 15% | 1.50 | 1.02-2.20 | 0.041 | 1.36 | 0.91-2.03 | 0.129 | 1.29 | 0.86–1.93 | 0.221 |
| Quartile 4 | 22% | 2.26 | 1.52-3.36 | <0.001 | 1.45 | 0.94-2.24 | 0.092 | 1.33 | 0.85-2.07 | 0.206 |
| NT-proBNP | ||||||||||
| Quartile 1 | 3.7% | 1.0 (ref) | - | - | 1.0 (ref) | - | - | 1.0 (ref) | - | - |
| Quartile 2-3 | 15% | 3.83 | 2.19-6.70 | <0.001 | 2.43 | 1.36-4.32 | 0.003 | 2.33 | 1.31-4.16 | 0.004 |
| Quartile 4 | 28% | 7.66 | 4.37-13.43 | <0.001 | 2.89 | 1.54-5.43 | 0.001 | 2.63 | 1.38–4.99 | 0.003 |
| Post-operative (n= 1,256) | ||||||||||
| sST-2 | ||||||||||
| Quartile 1 | 7.3% | 1.0 (ref) | - | 1.0 (ref) | - | - | 1.0 (ref) | - | - | |
| Quartile 2-3 | 14% | 2.17 | 2.35-3.51 | 0.001 | 1.49 | 0.90-2.45 | 0.117 | 1.38 | 0.83-2.27 | 0.213 |
| Quartile 4 | 27% | 3.95 | 2.42-6.44 | <0.001 | 2.57 | 1.52-4.35 | <0.001 | 2.27 | 1.33–3.86 | 0.003 |
| NT-proBNP | ||||||||||
| Quartile 1 | 6.0% | 1.0 (ref) | - | - | 1.0 (ref) | - | - | 1.0 (ref) | - | - |
| Quartile 2-3 | 12% | 1.81 | 1.08-3.01 | 0.023 | 1.26 | 0.74-2.14 | 0.391 | 1.17 | 0.69–1.99 | 0.564 |
| Quartile 4 | 32% | 5.28 | 3.21-8.66 | <0.001 | 2.50 | 1.40-4.47 | 0.002 | 2.13 | 1.18–1.99 | 0.012 |
| Change in Serum Level (n=1,152) | ||||||||||
| sST-2 | ||||||||||
| Quartile 1 | 8.8% | 1.0 (ref) | - | - | 1.0 (ref) | - | - | 1.0 (ref) | - | - |
| Quartile 2-3 | 13% | 1.52 | 0.96-2.40 | 0.071 | 1.09 | 0.78-1.76 | 0.710 | 1.03 | 0.63-1.67 | 0.913 |
| Quartile 4 | 25% | 2.81 | 1.76-4.47 | <0.001 | 1.77 | 1.07-2.95 | 0.027 | 1.50 | 0.87-2.53 | 0.131 |
| NT-proBNP | ||||||||||
| Quartile 1 | 9.3% | 1.0 (ref) | - | - | 1.0 (ref) | - | - | 1.0 (ref) | - | - |
| Quartile 2-3 | 12% | 1.22 | 0.78-1.89 | 0.381 | 1.12 | 0.70-1.76 | 0.632 | 1.10 | 0.69-1.74 | 0.693 |
| Quartile 4 | 28% | 2.96 | 1.93-4.54 | <0.001 | 1.85 | 1.13-3.02 | 0.014 | 1.69 | 1.02–2.79 | 0.040 |
a
HR= hazard ratio; CI= confidence interval; sST-2= soluble ST-2; NT-proBNP= N-terminal prohormone of BNP
b
Adjusted for ASCERT variables: age, weight, height, creatinine, ejection fraction, mean aortic gradient, sex, ethnicity, diabetes, cerebrovascular disease, cigarette smoking, congestive heart failure class, prior cardiac operation, cardiac status, number of diseased coronary vessels, myocardial infarction, and valve insufficiency.24,25
c
Adjusted for all ASCERT variables and other biomarker measure (e.g sST-2 model adjusted for NT-proBNP level at the same time point, and vice versa).