Table 3. Area under the ROC curve and sensitivity for prediction of preeclampsia with delivery at <34, <37 and ≥37 weeks’ gestation based on pre-specified variables, backward selection and Random forest methods.
| Total study population n = 62 562 |
Restricted study populationc n = 58 276 |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictive method | Area under the ROCa curve | (95% CI) | Sensitivity for 10% FPRb | (95% CI) | Area under the ROCa curve | (95% CI) | Sensitivity for 10% FPRb | (95% CI) |
| Prediction of preeclampsia <34 weeks | ||||||||
| Pre-specified variables | 0.68 | (0.64–0.72) | 30.6 | (24.5–37.2) | 0.67 | (0.63-0-72) | 28.8 | (22.1–36.3) |
| Backward selection | 0.66 | (0.62–0.70) | 26.9 | (21.1–33.3) | 0.64 | (0.60–0.69) | 28.8 | (22.1–36.3) |
| Random forest | 0.58 | (0.54–0.62) | 18.5 | (13.6–24.4) | 0.57 | (0.53–0.62) | 17.6 | (12.2–24.2) |
| Prediction of preeclampsia <37 weeks | ||||||||
| Pre-specified variables | 0.68 | (0.65–0.70) | 29.2 | (25.2–33.4) | 0.68 | (0.65-0-71) | 29.3 | (25.0–34.0) |
| Backward selection | 0.66 | (0.63–0.68) | 25.8 | (22.0–29.8) | 0.66 | (0.63–0.69) | 27.9 | (23.6–32.5) |
| Random forest | 0.60 | (0.57–0.63) | 24.3 | (20.6–28.4) | 0.60 | (0.57–0.62) | 21.4 | (17.5–25.7) |
| Prediction of preeclampsia ≥37 weeks | ||||||||
| Pre-specified variables | 0.67 | (0.66–0.69) | 28.1 | (26.3–30.0) | 0.67 | (0.66–0.68) | 27.6 | (25.7–29.5) |
| Backward selection | 0.67 | (0.66–0.68) | 28.2 | (26.4–30.1) | 0.67 | (0.66–0.68) | 27.5 | (25.6–29.5) |
| Random forest | 0.61 | (0.60–0.62) | 22.4 | (20.7–24.2) | 0.62 | (0.60–0.63) | 22.7 | (20.9–24.5) |
a ROC: Receiver operating characteristic
b FPR: False-positive rate
c Restricted study population: Pregnancies without major malformations or treatment with aspirin