Table 4.
Summary of articles with models predicting severity of malaria infection
| N | Study | Year | Period of participant recruitment | Country | Type of study | Sample size | Statistics used | Name of model | Method internal of validation | Age profiles | Sex profiles |
Outcome predicted | Variables used | Diagnostic properties | External validation | Use in clinical settings |
| Severity of disease | ||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Helbok et al35 | 2003 | 1 October 2001 to 30 January 2002 |
Thailand | Cohort | 22 | NC | MODS (multiorgan dysfunction score)44 | None | 16–41 years | Female—41.8% | Severity of disease in adult patients with uncomplicated falciparum malaria | Ten organ systems: (heart, blood vessel, blood, respiratory system, metabolism, gastrointestinal system, liver, kidney and urinary tract, immune system, and central nervous system) | None | None | NE |
| 2 | Helbok et al34 | 2005 | 1 October 2001 to 30 July 2002 | Thailand | Cohort | 29 | Survival analysis | MODS44 | None | Mean age: 27.1 (±10.6) | Female—27.6% | Severity of disease in adult patients with severe falciparum malaria | Ten organ systems: (heart, blood vessel, blood, respiratory system, metabolism, gastrointestinal system, liver, kidney and urinary tract, immune system and central nervous system) | None | None | NE |
| 3 | Helbok et al36 | 2006 | August 2003 to May 2005 | Gabon | Cohort | 485 | Survival analysis | Simplified MODS35 | ROC analysis | 4–169 months | Females—49% | Severity of disease and disability in children with severe falciparum malaria infection | Ten organ systems: (heart, blood vessel, blood, respiratory system, metabolism, gastrointestinal system, liver, kidney and urinary tract, immune system, and central nervous system) | AUC to predict prolonged disease (>48 hours unable to walk): 0.92 (95% CI 0.89 to 0.95) | None | NE |
| 4 | Grigg et al37 | 2018 | October 2012 to April 2016 | Malaysia | Cohort | 481 patients with Plasmodium knowlesi | Logistic regression | None | None | 33 years (IQR: 21–49) | Female—43.2% | Severity of Plasmodium knowlesi infection using WHO 2014 research criteria45 | Age >45, abdominal pain, shortness of breath, increased parasite count, schizont proportion >10%, bicarbonate<18 mmol | None | None | NE |
AUC, area under the curve; NC, not clear; NE, no evidence; TNF, tissue necrotic factor.