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. 2019 Dec 2;9:18099. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-54561-9

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© The Author(s) 2019

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Sensitivity Analysis – Influence of Key Model Parameters on Projections of MDR-TB Incidence in South Africa. The top 5 parameters which most strongly impact the distributions of MDR-TB incidence in 2040 in projections of the epidemic in South Africa are displayed. Each boxplot represents the distribution of values for the primary outcome (the incidence of MDR-TB in 2040) within a given set of simulations. Pairs of boxplots represent groups of simulations categorized by values of a single input parameter: red boxplots represent the outcomes of those simulations with parameter values in the upper 20% of all simulations; blue boxplots represent the outcomes of those simulations with parameter values in the lower 20% of all simulations. More influential parameters demonstrate a greater separation of the distributions of outcome between simulations in the upper quintile and simulations in the lower quintile of parameter values. To the left of each panel are included the input parameter values corresponding to the accompanying quintile. In black is represented the overall distribution of the outcome across all simulations and the median estimate is drawn as a vertical dotted line. Boxes represent the median, 25th, and 75th percentiles of the distribution of outcomes; whiskers represent the 5th and 95th percentiles of the distribution of outcomes. In the Constant Deficit model, parameters involving the reduction in MDR-TB transmission efficiency deficit are excluded by definition.