Table 1.
Description | Median | Sampling Range† | Distribution | References |
---|---|---|---|---|
Probability of rapid progression after initial tuberculosis infection | 0·14 | 0·08–0·25 | Logit-normal | 45 |
Reactivation rate from latent to incipient active tuberculosis, per year | 0·001 | 0·0005–0·002 | Lognormal | 46–49 |
Rate of tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment initiation, per year | 1·0 | 0·7–1·5 | Lognormal | 1,50,51 |
Proportion failing to initiate treatment for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis after diagnosis (in excess of loss to follow-up of patients with drug-susceptible tuberculosis) | 0·05 | 0·02–0·10 | Logit-normal | 1,51 |
Proportion of treated patients who have an apparent treatment response | ||||
Newly diagnosed patients with drug-susceptible tuberculosis, first-line therapy | 0·98 | 0·96–0·99 | Logit-normal | 1,52–54 |
Patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, longer therapy | 0·77 | 0·66–0·85 | Logit-normal | 55–57 |
Proportion who relapse, among those with apparent treatment response | ||||
Newly diagnosed patients with drug-susceptible tuberculosis, first-line therapy | 0·04 | 0·026–0·06 | Logit-normal | 57,58 |
Patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, longer therapy | 0·04 | 0·015–0·10 | Logit-normal | 58,59 |
Probability of loss to follow-up during therapy | ||||
First-line therapy | 0·06 | 0·03–0·10 | Logit-normal | 1 |
Longer therapy for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis | 0·11 | 0·04–0·25 | Logit-normal | 60,61 |
Risk of acquiring multidrug resistance during first-line therapy | 0·004 | 0·0015–0·01 | Logit-normal | 56 |
*Parameters were selected for inclusion in this table based on familiarity to a scientific audience and prior belief of strong association with MDR-TB transmission. See the Appendix for a full listing of all parameters, sampling distributions, and references. †Sampling ranges represent the 2·5th to 97·5th percentiles of unbounded distributions and lower to upper bounds of uniform distributions.