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. 2019 Dec 2;9:18099. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-54561-9

Table 1.

Selected* Parameter Values.

Description Median Sampling Range Distribution References
Probability of rapid progression after initial tuberculosis infection 0·14 0·08–0·25 Logit-normal 45
Reactivation rate from latent to incipient active tuberculosis, per year 0·001 0·0005–0·002 Lognormal 4649
Rate of tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment initiation, per year 1·0 0·7–1·5 Lognormal 1,50,51
Proportion failing to initiate treatment for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis after diagnosis (in excess of loss to follow-up of patients with drug-susceptible tuberculosis) 0·05 0·02–0·10 Logit-normal 1,51
Proportion of treated patients who have an apparent treatment response
Newly diagnosed patients with drug-susceptible tuberculosis, first-line therapy 0·98 0·96–0·99 Logit-normal 1,5254
Patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, longer therapy 0·77 0·66–0·85 Logit-normal 5557
Proportion who relapse, among those with apparent treatment response
Newly diagnosed patients with drug-susceptible tuberculosis, first-line therapy 0·04 0·026–0·06 Logit-normal 57,58
Patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, longer therapy 0·04 0·015–0·10 Logit-normal 58,59
Probability of loss to follow-up during therapy
First-line therapy 0·06 0·03–0·10 Logit-normal 1
Longer therapy for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis 0·11 0·04–0·25 Logit-normal 60,61
Risk of acquiring multidrug resistance during first-line therapy 0·004 0·0015–0·01 Logit-normal 56

*Parameters were selected for inclusion in this table based on familiarity to a scientific audience and prior belief of strong association with MDR-TB transmission. See the Appendix for a full listing of all parameters, sampling distributions, and references. Sampling ranges represent the 2·5th to 97·5th percentiles of unbounded distributions and lower to upper bounds of uniform distributions.