Table 1.
Predicted prevalence of type 2 diabetes by calendar year for four scenarios of trends in obesity, compared with the baseline scenario
| Scenario | Change in obesity prevalence (%/5 years) | Change in diabetes prevalence by 2060 (%) | Calendar year | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | 2060 | |||
| Diabetes prevalence (%) | ||||||||
| A | +5 | +49 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 10.1 | 11.1 | 12.0 | 12.8 |
| Baselinea | +1 | +26 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 10.1 | 10.5 | 10.8 |
| B | 0 | +20 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 10.2 | 10.3 |
| C | −3 | +7 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.2 |
Projection of diabetes prevalence based on estimates from PHE DPM using different assumptions of future obesity trends [7]
aBaseline scenario is that the current trend in the prevalence of obesity will continue