Table 3.
Number of deaths avoided for scenarios A, B and C vs baseline scenario: England and Wales, population aged ≥65
| Sex | Calendar year | Scenario A (49% increase in diabetes prevalence by 2060) | Scenario B (20% increase in diabetes prevalence by 2060) | Scenario C (7% increase in diabetes prevalence by 2060) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deaths avoided (thousands)a (cumulative since 2015) | Per 100,000 populationa | Deaths avoided (thousands) (cumulative since 2015) | Per 100,000 population | Deaths avoided (thousands) (cumulative since 2015) | Per 100,000 population | ||
| All | 2030 | −12.4 (−13.7 to −10.9) | −14.1 (−15.5 to −12.6) | 3.1 (2.7 to 3.4) | 3.4 (3.0 to 3.7) | 12.0 (10.6 to 13.3) | 13.3 (11.9 to 14.6) |
| 2045 | −79.7 (−86.0 to −72.5) | −43.4 (−46.6 to −40.0) | 18.9 (17.2 to 20.4) | 10.1 (9.3 to 10.8) | 73.0 (66.5 to 78.8) | 38.5 (35.5 to 41.3) | |
| 2060 | −255.0 (−272.2 to −236.0) | −79.5 (−84.9 to −73.8) | 58.6 (54.3 to 62.6) | 17.7 (16.5 to 18.9) | 222.2 (205.7 to 237.3) | 65.5 (60.8 to 70.0) | |
| Men | 2030 | −6.7 (−7.4 to −5.9) | −16.3 (−17.8 to −14.5) | 1.6 (1.5 to 1.8) | 3.9 (3.5 to 4.3) | 6.5 (5.7 to 7.2) | 15.4 (13.8 to 16.8) |
| 2045 | −42.5 (−45.8 to −38.7) | −48.7 (−52.2 to −44.8) | 10.1 (9.2 to 10.9) | 11.3 (10.4 to 12.1) | 39.0 (35.5 to 42.0) | 43.2 (39.8 to 46.2) | |
| 2060 | −135.8 (−144.8 to −126.1) | −86.9 (−92.7 to −80.9) | 31.2 (29.0 to 33.3) | 19.4 (18.1 to 20.7) | 118.4 (110.0 to 126.3) | 71.4 (66.5 to 76.3) | |
| Women | 2030 | −5.7 (−6.3 to −5.0) | −12.2 (−13.4 to −10.9) | 1.4 (1.2 to 1.5) | 2.9 (2.6 to 3.2) | 5.5 (4.9 to 6.1) | 11.6 (10.3 to 12.7) |
| 2045 | −37.2 (−40.2 to −33.7) | −38.7 (−41.6 to −35.5) | 8.8 (8.0 to 9.5) | 9.0 (8.3 to 9.7) | 34.0 (30.9 to 36.8) | 34.3 (31.5 to 36.9) | |
| 2060 | −119.2 (−127.5 to −109.9) | −72.3 (−77.5 to −67.0) | 27.4 (25.2 to 29.3) | 16.1 (14.9 to 17.3) | 103.8 (95.8 to 111.0) | 59.8 (55.4 to 64.1) | |
The baseline scenario is that the current trend in the prevalence of diabetes will continue, which will result in a 26% increase in diabetes prevalence by 2060
95% UIs are shown in brackets
aNegative values indicate additional burden