Table 4.
Number of new cases of disability and dementia avoided for scenarios A, B and C vs baseline scenario: England and Wales, population aged ≥65
| Sex | Calendar year | Scenario A (49% increase in diabetes prevalence by 2060) | Scenario B (20% increase in diabetes prevalence by 2060) | Scenario C (7% increase in diabetes prevalence by 2060) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cases avoided (thousands)a (cumulative since 2015) |
Per 100,000 population | Cases avoided (thousands)(cumulative since 2015) | Per 100,000 population | Cases avoided (thousands)(cumulative since 2015) | Per 100,000 population | ||
| Disability | |||||||
| All | 2030 | −5.0 (−6.2 to −3.8) | −5.9 (−7.2 to −4.5) | 1.2 (0.8 to 1.5) | 1.4 (1.1 to 1.7) | 4.7 (3.6 to 5.9) | 5.6 (4.3 to 6.8) |
| 2045 | −33.8 (−40.6 to −27.1) | −18.6 (−21.9 to −15.4) | 8.0 (6.4 to 9.6) | 4.4 (3.6 to 5.1) | 31.1 (25.1 to 37.4) | 16.8 (14.0 to 19.6) | |
| 2060 | −104.9 (−125.4 to −85.9) | −30.9 (−36.3 to −25.9) | 24.4 (20.0 to 29.2) | 7.1 (5.9 to 8.3) | 93.3 (76.7 to 111.4) | 26.4 (22.2 to 31.1) | |
| Men | 2030 | −2.6 (−3.3 to −2.0) | −6.6 (−8.0 to −5.1) | 0.6 (0.3 to 0.7) | 1.6 (1.2 to 1.9) | 2.4 (1.8 to 3.0) | 6.2 (4.8 to 7.6) |
| 2045 | −17.8 (−21.4 to −14.3) | −20.8 (−24.6 to −17.3) | 4.2 (3.3 to 5.0) | 4.9 (4.1 to 5.8) | 16.3 (13.2 to 19.6) | 18.8 (15.7 to 22.1) | |
| 2060 | −56.2 (−67.0 to −46.0) | −34.6 (−40.7 to −29.2) | 13.0 (10.7 to 15.5) | 7.9 (6.7 to 9.3) | 50.0 (41.0 to 59.7) | 29.5 (24.9 to 34.7) | |
| Women | 2030 | −2.3 (−2.9 to −1.8) | −5.3 (−6.4 to −4.1) | 0.6 (0.4 to 0.7) | 1.3 (1.0 to 1.6) | 2.3 (1.7 to 2.8) | 5.0 (3.9 to 6.1) |
| 2045 | −16.0 (−19.3 to −12.8) | −16.6 (−19.6 to −13.7) | 3.8 (3.1 to 4.6) | 3.9 (3.2 to 4.6) | 14.7 (11.9 to 17.7) | 15.0 (12.4 to 17.6) | |
| 2060 | −48.9 (−58.4 to −40.0) | −27.5 (−32.3 to −22.9) | 11.4 (9.3 to 13.6) | 6.3 (5.2 to 7.4) | 43.5 (35.7 to 52.0) | 23.7 (19.7 to 27.7) | |
| Dementia | |||||||
| All | 2030 | −3.4 (−4.3 to −2.6) | −4.2 (−5.1 to −3.3) | 0.8 (0.5 to 1.0) | 1.0 (0.8 to 1.2) | 3.2 (2.4 to 4.0) | 4.0 (3.1 to 4.9) |
| 2045 | −25.7 (−30.7 to −20.9) | −15.1 (−17.6 to −12.6) | 6.1 (4.9 to 7.3) | 3.6 (3.0 to 4.1) | 23.8 (19.4 to 28.4) | 13.7 (11.5 to 16.0) | |
| 2060 | −85.9 (−101.6 to −71.5) | −26.7 (−31.0 to −22.8) | 20.1 (16.8 to 23.7) | 6.2 (5.3 to 7.1) | 77.0 (64.3 to 90.8) | 23.1 (19.7 to 26.8) | |
| Men | 2030 | −1.8 (−2.3 to −1.3) | −4.6 (−5.6 to −3.6) | 0.4 (0.1 to 0.5) | 1.1 (0.9 to 1.4) | 1.6 (1.2 to 2.0) | 4.4 (3.4 to 5.4) |
| 2045 | −13.5 (−16.2 to −11.0) | −17.0 (−19.8 to −14.1) | 3.2 (2.5 to 3.8) | 4.0 (3.3 to 4.7) | 12.5 (10.1 to 15.0) | 15.5 (12.9 to 18.0) | |
| 2060 | −46.5 (−54.9 to −38.5) | −30.2 (−35.2 to −25.6) | 10.8 (9.0 to 12.8) | 7.0 (5.9 to 8.1) | 41.6 (34.6 to 49.1) | 26.0 (22.0 to 30.3) | |
| Women | 2030 | −1.7 (−2.1 to −1.2) | −3.8 (−4.7 to −3.0) | 0.4 (0.3 to 0.5) | 0.9 (0.7 to 1.1) | 1.6 (1.2 to 2.0) | 3.6 (2.8 to 4.5) |
| 2045 | −12.2 (−14.6 to −9.9) | −13.4 (−15.7 to −11.2) | 2.9 (2.4 to 3.5) | 3.2 (2.6 to 3.7) | 11.4 (9.2 to 13.5) | 12.2 (10.2 to 14.2) | |
| 2060 | −39.8 (−47.1 to −32.8) | −23.5 (−27.4 to −19.8) | 9.3 (7.7 to 11.0) | 5.4 (4.6 to 6.3) | 35.6 (29.5 to 42.2) | 20.4 (17.2 to 23.6) | |
The baseline scenario is that the current trend in diabetes will continue, which will result in a 26% increase in diabetes prevalence by 2060
95% UIs are shown in brackets
aNegative values for number of cases avoided mean extra additional cases