Fig. 2.

Flowchart of HSV-2 natural history, vaccine effects, and efficacy assumptions in each model. Only Lou et al. (2012) in (F) does not represent reactivation episodes of high infectivity through the life-course of HSV-2 infection. Otherwise, all other models represent reactivation periods associated with increased viral shedding and infectivity and asymptomatic or latent periods associated with low or no infectivity. Panels (B) and (G) refer to specific scenarios defined in the original publications and presented in Figs. 4^** and 5^***. Red, orange, and yellow reflect high, medium and low infectivity within a given model. In addition, Garnett et al. (2004) and Freeman et al. (2009) assume that reactivation frequency declines with time since infection. S – Susceptible; E – Exposed, not infectious. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)