Table 2.
Summary of annual transition rates reported in identified studies
| Transition | Mean | Median | Minimum | Maximum | No. of observations | References |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CKD transitions | ||||||
| CKD 1 to CKD 2 | 0.053 | 0.053 | 0.022 | 0.083 | 2 | [25, 30] |
| CKD 1 to death | 0.040 | 0.040 | 0.040 | 0.040 | 1 | [30] |
| CKD 2 to CKD 3 | 0.071 | 0.054 | 0.002 | 0.175 | 4 | [25, 27, 30] |
| CKD 2 to death | 0.027 | 0.027 | 0.003 | 0.051 | 2 | [27, 30] |
| CKD 3 to CKD 4 | 0.182 | 0.151 | 0.008 | 0.405 | 6 | [25, 27, 29, 30] |
| CKD 3 to death | 0.041 | 0.063 | 0.005 | 0.063 | 5 | [27, 29, 30] |
| CKD 4 to CKD 5/ESRD | 0.067 | 0.059 | 0.010 | 0.148 | 12 | [25, 27, 29, 30, 53, 54, 58, 61] |
| CKD 4 to death | 0.080 | 0.062 | 0.008 | 0.177 | 10 | [27, 29, 30] [58, 61, 66] |
| Nephropathy-related transitions | ||||||
| No nephropathy to microalbuminuria | 0.028 | 0.027 | 0.003 | 0.060 | 24 | [23, 74, 79, 88, 92, 98, 103, 111, 117, 141] |
| No nephropathy to death | 0.026 | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.194 | 16 | [23, 74, 79, 80, 88, 92, 113, 117] |
| Microalbuminuria to macroalbuminuria | 0.044 | 0.030 | 0.001 | 0.157 | 18 | [23, 74, 79, 88, 92, 103, 110, 111, 117] |
| Microalbuminuria to death | 0.038 | 0.014 | 0.000 | 0.119 | 17 | [23, 74, 79, 88, 92, 102, 110, 117] |
| Macroalbuminuria to ESRD | 0.040 | 0.012 | 0.001 | 0.158 | 17 | [23, 74, 79, 88, 92, 110, 111, 117] |
| Macroalbuminuria to death | 0.101 | 0.086 | 0.007 | 0.289 | 15 | [23, 74, 79, 88, 92, 110, 117] |
| ESRD transitions | ||||||
| ESRD/dialysis to transplant | 0.055 | 0.040 | 0.005 | 0.150 | 14 | [27, 30, 43, 44, 48, 51, 107, 118, 120] |
| ESRD/dialysis to death | 0.177 | 0.146 | 0.008 | 0.626 | 56 | [27, 30, 35, 43–45, 48, 51, 53, 58, 59, 61, 63, 66, 74, 79, 88, 92, 94, 98, 107, 110, 111, 117, 118, 120, 121, 136, 138, 141] |
| Transplant to dialysis | 0.082 | 0.084 | 0.040 | 0.118 | 4 | [27, 30, 118] |
| Transplant to death | 0.053 | 0.050 | 0.012 | 0.093 | 12 | [27, 30, 51, 61, 107, 118, 120] |
Assumptions: Where relevant, transitions were matched to a baseline patient age of 50 years. Where ranges were reported, the midpoint of the range was extracted. Where male and female rates were reported, the average of the two was extracted. Duration of diabetes was assumed to be 10 years if not reported and required to calculate transition rates. All transitions are presented as annual probabilities. Depending on the model, ESRD includes non-dialysis ESRD and dialysis
CKD chronic kidney disease, ESRD end-stage renal disease